NHC has Invest 92L at 70%. Tropical Tidbits has updated ensemble maps. Tropical Tidbits

Since I'm directly in the path of this invest (I'm in Martinique right now), I've been following it very closely. All of the models show it coming close and developing into a storm, perhaps even a named storm. The normal spaghetti models show it hitting the windward chain, then conditions aren't good for it to develop. St. Martin and the BVI might get 10+ foot waves. Of course, this is 5 days out and much can happen between now and then.

Take care Zanshin. A lot of uncertainty right now.

I've got a simple plan - if things look dicey on Monday, then I depart for either St. Lucia or St. Vincent & the Grenadines. I'll still have enough wind to sail south, and can motor if I need to. Even though I'm really protected here, the storm will whip up winds and waves at over 20 knots coming from the NW (for a day) and this anchorage is open in that direction.

Head’s up on this friends. New forecast and models this morning and it is looking more concerning.

Definitely keeping an eye on that. Hopefully it produces some much-needed rain and not much more.

Since Irma we continue to strengthen our hurricane protection. We found pvc clips to secure downspouts and added U brackets for 2x4s to doors and windows. This year we had another large hurricane door rebuilt. Hoping for the best!

Tropical Depression now and forecast to be a hurricane before it hits the islands Fri/Sat. Still plenty of uncertainty on path.

Watching this closely. Hoping it stays South. Be careful out there friends! Zanshin, what did you decide to do?

We are delayed heading south and will be weathering this one in the USVIs. I'd rather be in Hartmann Bay, Grenada tied to the mangroves for any hurricane. We do not have a slot in the NPS managed Hurricane Hole hurricane shelter. Good luck to everyone.

Cheers, RickG

Be safe Rick - here’s hoping it tracks S.

Here is a link to Zanshin's web post yesterday where he talks about his plans:

Zanshin blog

Thank you for the link!

This morning's NOAA report gave me some bad news, but perhaps good news for SXM and the BVI.

And the Windy chart shows the following for Friday, the little green Diamon is where I am anchored now

So I've bought French groceries, have cleared out, and am going to sail straight south to Carriacou in Grenada tomorrow morning. That might be on the edge of the projected grey-shaded-zone, but if it looks bad I'll just continue south. Once I get into the ITCZ no hurricane will be able to follow me

Stay safe Arnd. Scary stuff heading across the projected path of a storm. Did it once and it was a worrying few days before I got south of the line.

Good plan Zanshin. Keep us posted as you can.

His latest blog post says he's heading south to Grenada in the morning.

I'm 1/3 of the way between Martinique and St. Lucia right now. Bored, so I switched on the StarLink and checked my e-mails and forums
Since I don't have a working genoa I can only get about 3 knots of speed with just the mainsail, so I'm motorsailing. I'm going to stop in Rodney Bay for some fuel (2x 20l canisters, just to be on the safe side), then continue straight on or spend the night and leave tomorrow morning. The most recent forecasts look a lot better, but I'm not going to deviate from this plan unless there's no chance of the storm/hurricane reaching St. Lucia.

Zanshin, glad to hear you're okay. Hope all works out and you find someone to repair your Genoa.

If there is room in the mangroves in Tyrell Bay, that is a good option. If not, we like Mt. Hartman Bay, Grenada.

The Virgin Islands are currently looking at 30k winds. We are staying on our mooring in Coral Bay and will be checking our mooring and removing things on deck. Good luck to everyone!

Cheers, RickG

At Tyrell Bay there's at worst 20-30 knots from the east forecast. No need for me to go into any mangroves (assuming there's room). If the weather forecast worsens, I'll just keep on sailing to Grenada itself. As long as I get to the latitude of the Grenadines tomorrow afternoon I'll be happy.

New Tropical Tidbit

Good luck Zanshin!

I would think 93L is a bigger issue. GAWD the sea temps/air temps were HIGH for late May.

Looked at Zanshin's AIS tracking at it appears he's heading further south. Currently on passage towards Saint Vincent.

For the BVI? It is now, earlier this week 92L/Bret was expected to graze the islands. Quite a bit changes in a few days.

I just arrived in Port Elizabeth, Bequia, SVG. I thought I could stop here, but I just checked NOAA and this is now on the southern edge of the "storm warning" band. Since I worked so hard to get here and escape weather, I'll head out tomorrow morning and go to Grenada. The, once 93L has passed, I'll drift up north again

Best wishes, Zanshin.