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Tropical wave to monitor #305699
09/01/2023 08:13 AM
09/01/2023 08:13 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline OP
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sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
This is peak Hurricane Season!

Attached Files IMG_0526.png
SXM Sponsors
Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305705
09/01/2023 08:45 AM
09/01/2023 08:45 AM
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
kim Offline
Traveler
kim  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
Is the 94L? I’ve been watching this as I arrive Monday for a week! 🤦🏻‍♀️

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305707
09/01/2023 09:17 AM
09/01/2023 09:17 AM
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 387
Ontario Canada
D
Dr Phil SXM Offline
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Dr Phil SXM  Offline
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D
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 387
Ontario Canada
I will be in SXM for at least the first half of September.

Always good to monitor these systems and be vigilant.

Both marine models from reliable apps show the system going north of SXM.

Drphilsxm

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Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: Dr Phil SXM] #305708
09/01/2023 09:19 AM
09/01/2023 09:19 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
Thanks, Phil.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305710
09/01/2023 01:56 PM
09/01/2023 01:56 PM
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 722
L
lcote Offline
Traveler
lcote  Offline
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L
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 722
Please hurricane gods.......I need my trip to SXM in December this year more than ever. Be kind to the island!

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305723
09/02/2023 06:00 AM
09/02/2023 06:00 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline OP
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sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
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GFS computer model ran today for September 9, 2023 has a system going close or right over SXM in 7 days. smashpc

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Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305726
09/02/2023 07:00 AM
09/02/2023 07:00 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,100
Massachusetts
boucharda Offline
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boucharda  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,100
Massachusetts
That looks like rain vs a storm to be worried about. Everything of concern is moving north

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Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305727
09/02/2023 07:15 AM
09/02/2023 07:15 AM
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
kim Offline
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kim  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
Kind of concerned about the far one. We leave 9/10 - if we go!!

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Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: kim] #305733
09/02/2023 08:19 AM
09/02/2023 08:19 AM
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,323
RI
jomarc Offline
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jomarc  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,323
RI
We are watching this one too, as we are arriving on Monday.


Jo-

A smile is a curve that sets everything straight.
Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: kim] #305739
09/02/2023 09:10 AM
09/02/2023 09:10 AM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 90
Port Huron, Michigan
K
KitKat Offline
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KitKat  Offline
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K
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 90
Port Huron, Michigan
Originally Posted by kim
Kind of concerned about the far one. We leave 9/10 - if we go!!


That is the only one we are worried about right now. Even though we don't arrive until February, that tropical wave looks ominous!

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: KitKat] #305741
09/02/2023 10:02 AM
09/02/2023 10:02 AM
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
kim Offline
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kim  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
Right. I’m supposed to fly down Monday 9/4 but fly home 9/10. Could change and fly home 9/7 - but 3 days. Granted we own the condo so not the end of the world. But a lot of work for 3 days!!!

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305744
09/02/2023 10:35 AM
09/02/2023 10:35 AM
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 387
Ontario Canada
D
Dr Phil SXM Offline
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Dr Phil SXM  Offline
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D
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 387
Ontario Canada
I will be on the island till the third week of September.
As I mentioned, in my last post, it is always good to be vigilant and monitor these systems.
At this time, the system is one week away from possibly affecting SXM.
Both marine weather apps continue to show the system going slightly north of SXM next Saturday. The GFS or European model shows a more westerly path going over top of SXM. These weather models vary because they all consider a current large high-pressure system in the north Atlantic. If the high-pressure weakens, the system will bend more north. If it strengthens and does not move, then the system will move more westerly.

Since these predictions are still one week away, a lot can happen.

The national hurricane center, which is always a good source, is always general in nature for a seven day forecast. They know that a seven day forecast can not be exact. A lot can happen in seven days with the track of a storm.

I am not a meteorologist, but it is always best to monitor and be aware of these systems as they get closer to see where they actually track.

Drphilsxm

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Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: kim] #305773
09/03/2023 09:25 AM
09/03/2023 09:25 AM
Joined: Apr 2003
Posts: 524
SW Florida
Jerry_R Offline
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Jerry_R  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2003
Posts: 524
SW Florida
It appears we are in the same boat! Departing MIA 9/4 and return 9/10. Considering departing earlier from SXM to MIA.

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: Jerry_R] #305774
09/03/2023 09:29 AM
09/03/2023 09:29 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,379
Kennys Offline
Traveler
Kennys  Offline
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,379
Yes Jerry and see you tomorrow.

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305792
09/03/2023 02:47 PM
09/03/2023 02:47 PM
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 1,178
M
MIDiver Offline
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MIDiver  Offline
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M
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 1,178
The 2pm update doesn’t look good for the islands…..

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: MIDiver] #305794
09/03/2023 02:55 PM
09/03/2023 02:55 PM
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
kim Offline
Traveler
kim  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 4,716
Newtown, CT
Yes. I just cancelled my trip. Will
Keep an eye on it and maybe head down Thursday or Friday if it moves away.

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: kim] #305813
09/03/2023 08:09 PM
09/03/2023 08:09 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline OP
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
It is always hard to cancel but better safe than sorry. It is most likely to brush SXM but get stalled out near the Bahamas?
I have a trip planned to North Carolina which has computer models showing a direct hit on September 17th.
Hurricane fatigue setting in and all I can do is wait and see.

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305825
09/04/2023 09:52 AM
09/04/2023 09:52 AM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 492
Maryland
Jim_Laraine Offline
Traveler
Jim_Laraine  Offline
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 492
Maryland
We are scheduled to arrive next week on the 13th for 3 weeks. Guess we'll know the outcome before then. The folks at BSV said that they would work with us if something like this came up. Fingers crossed!

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: Jim_Laraine] #305831
09/04/2023 10:48 AM
09/04/2023 10:48 AM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,664
Brookfield, CT.
pat Offline
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pat  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,664
Brookfield, CT.
The BSV people are great about things like this happening and if the worse comes to pass, they will live up to their word as best they are able. 👍👍


Respectfully,

pat



"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat
them."
Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: sxmmartini] #305887
09/05/2023 11:33 AM
09/05/2023 11:33 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 19,037
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Online content
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Online Content
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Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 19,037
Auburn, WA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13 FORMS...

FORECASTED SHOULD PASS TO NORTH AND EAST OF ST. MAARTEN BY APPROXIMATELY 280 MILES.

TD 13 is FORECASTED to be a CAT 4 Hurricane on Saturday morning at 8 am when it is 280 miles to our north and east.

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 40.2W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to be a hurricane in a couple of days
and could become a major hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: SXMScubaman] #305888
09/05/2023 11:47 AM
09/05/2023 11:47 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
If that track holds, looks to be fairly decent news for SXM.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: Carol_Hill] #305890
09/05/2023 11:50 AM
09/05/2023 11:50 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 19,037
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Online content
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Online Content
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 19,037
Auburn, WA
🙏🤞🙏

Re: Tropical wave to monitor [Re: Carol_Hill] #305891
09/05/2023 12:03 PM
09/05/2023 12:03 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,379
Kennys Offline
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Kennys  Offline
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,379
Prayers yes !

Re: Tropical Depression #13 [Re: sxmmartini] #305892
09/05/2023 12:07 PM
09/05/2023 12:07 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline OP
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,552
Vermont
SXM is in the cone…

Attached Files IMG_0546.png
Re: Tropical Depression #13 [Re: sxmmartini] #305893
09/05/2023 12:13 PM
09/05/2023 12:13 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,264
Central Florida!
Martini--Yes, but the current track keeps it pretty far away. Hopefully the current track will hold, or perhaps even take it further away.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Depression #13 [Re: sxmmartini] #305895
09/05/2023 12:35 PM
09/05/2023 12:35 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 701
Rhode Island
Bluesfan Offline
Traveler
Bluesfan  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 701
Rhode Island
Note the "M" . Indicates Major hurricane. Winds >110 mph.

Last edited by Bluesfan; 09/05/2023 12:38 PM.

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