..Keep an eye on Ts Sean and the yellow cross behind him. heading northwest right now but a slight bobble could put us too close for comfort..again..

Yes, Sean looks very much like Philippe did. Originally scheduled to be very much a fish storm, then starting to go straight west and possibly go close to the islands.

Its giving me a touch of the "Uh Oh's"..

Last update shifts track well North from yesterday. Should have no effect on the BVI.

Fingers and toes crossed it keeps going that way..

That is only the 72 hour forecast. The long term GEFS ensembles from Weathernerds shows that, after Sunday, Sean will possibly take a turn to the west and pick up speed, possibly reaching the BVI by next Thursday. However, the forecast tracks seem to vary widely. The black line is simply the average of all of the tracks.


Further, the GEFS ensembles for the disturbance farther to the east shows it possibly reaching this area by the following Sunday (October 22) with hurricane force. There is a lot more consistency in the forecast tracks for this system.

The disturbance behind Sean concerns me.

Me too..

😳

Latest NHC forecast has Sean not going very far and then dissipating. Way too early to start sweating about the other one. Tracking models can't really tell much until and unless a storm forms up.

Invest 94 appears to want to swing north of us from the forecasts I am seeing


anyone seeing anything different?

Not as far to the North as I would like!

Agree! And the forecast for all next week into the following weekend is RAIN. Yuck. Hope that changes.

The Wednesday morning forecast shows it being close to the islands by Saturday. The forecast
strength is still up in the air, however.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Very dry here, we really could use the rain

Me too. I noticed a weather station I follow up by Scrub Island has recorded 7.29" of rain already in October. That's a ton.

I believe that 7.29" for October was mostly from the brush by TS Philippe in early October. I live in PR and have a PWS; we've only had 1.21" here for October. But PR and the various VIs have had a very dry "wet season". My Tortola friends have been complaining about low cisterns all summer.

I understand that the islands could use the rain, and “nice” rain would be welcome however the forecast calls for heavy rain and thunderstorms after the storm passage. W- Saturday next week. I know areas of Tortola had massive flooding with Phillipe (one of our favorite provisioners had it in both locations) and hoping that doesn’t occur for them again this weekend. We are trying to decide whether will will come in 10/24-11/1 as planned to check on our boat before the “season” officially begins. Not keen on spending half the time waiting out thunderstorms. 😟 Doubt we will schedule an October trip again.

10/24 is way to far off to really forecast anything. Wait a few days before you cancel.

Tammy should be the end of the tropical season for the BVI. Let's hope so!!!

My tracking software shows the storms going north and missing the BVI by about 200-300 miles, so a bit of rain and some wind. Hope this is the end of hurricane season 2023

Going to close this one. Please consolidate all comments under the "Tammy" thread.