This could be the Perfesser's dream come true, he's been watching this for a long time http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/70234/volcano-alert-level-orange

..and they keep testing the tsunami horns here..how are we supposed to know if one is really coming??!!

Jenny has been brewing for over a decade, I wouldn't be surprised.
Montserrate is the one I'm worried about if it blows because it will send a wave that will hit the south side of the U.S. and BVI's and PR in about twenty minutes.

Well, if you examine this 2002 sonar survey of Kick Em Jenny you will notice a semicircular cliff around the east side of the cone. That is the remnant of a total collapse of a previous larger cone. The slope of that cliff is towards the west and it is fair to assume that the fault continues under the current cone. When the cone grows enough it will slip again and there will be a tsunami of biblical scale sent from almost due north to WSW.

Glenn..how would a tsunami affect Tortola's north shore do you think..ie would CRC get wiped out??

Really, the only way this would be a problem is if the tsunami was happening on the last Friday on the month at 1400!

A friend from FEMA told me that they're watching it closely because there's a "possibility" it could blow in 24 hours.

Sounds like the volcano erupting in the near future is a very real possibility. I can't tell whether the potential tsunami is considered to be a real threat at this point or not.

If she does blow the tsunami will probably have a wrap around effect on the smaller islands.
Imagine if Genny is somehow connected subterranean to Montserrates volcano and we get a double eruption <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

From my non expert perspective that seems like a long way from the BVI's to be a problem. Could it actually affect conditions?

It doesn't sound like its anything to worry about from this article

http://www.ibtimes.com/kick-em-jenny-vol...4-hours-2022937

Actually not a long way for a tsunami considering they have been known to cross oceans.
Here's a good website:
http://www.uwiseismic.com/NewsDetails.aspx?id=365

Mal, it is a lot easier to predict what would happen on the shore facing a tsunami than the shore facing away. I used to think that being on the side away from a Tsunami would be safer but after the scientists reports on fukashima I am not so sure. In that event several villages on the back side of local islands were washed away as the wave split to encircled the islands and met on the back side forming huge surges.

I doubt that would happen in Apple Bay but in a really large tsunami from the southeast there will be a massive pile up of water trying to get through the Narrows. A possibile situation might be that it would set up what is called a coastal trapped edge wave that wraps around Great Thatch and slosh back and forth along the north shore. It would be good to know if the DDM has had any computer simulations run.

Here's a decent update on things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6bHq_EBgUQ&feature=share

A nice 8 minute speech that said nothing.
He should be in politics. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

I thought it was informative. Certainly got info that I didn't have previously.

" It would be good to know if the DDM has had any computer simulations run. " DDM was going to do some computer models. Unfortunately, Radio Shack closed up before they could get a few upgrades for their TRS 60's.

I've gone to Montserrat twice for TV shows to do stories on the volcano..interview those who escaped and experts etc. The experts at the MVO, Montserrat Volcano Observatory, have told me they expect the Soufrierre Hills volcano to stay active for about twenty more years but they are pretty confident there will not a a massive eruption that would affect the area outside the "exclusion zone" and cause a big tsunami..all that said..Montserrat is an amazing island to visit and observe a live volcano close up..

I was caught up in a Tsunami back in 2010 and they need to be taken very seriously, even minor ones like the one we experienced.

We were in the Galapagos on our boat when we were woken at 4.00 am by someone banging on the side of the boat. It was one of our companions from another boat and the harbour master. They told us there had been an earthquake in Chile, over 3000 miles away, and a Tsunami was expected to arrive in the Galapagos in 4 to 5 hours time (Tsunami waves travel at close to the speed of sound, in water, so around 700 mph). We were ORDERED to leave the harbour immediately as even though the wave was expected to be small it was expected that the water would get sucked out and any boats still in the harbour would probably be damaged.

We headed out along with maybe 50 other boats and all headed for the deepest water we could reach in the time available before the predicted arrival. We all lined up facing the south east motoring slowly forward until we heard from the harbour master that the wave had arrived and that the harbour was still closed.

We never felt a thing as the wave was only about 4-5 foot high and it just got lost in the ocean swell but back in the harbour it was chaos. All the water had been sucked out and any boats left there had either hit the bottom or in many cases their anchors had dragged and lots of boats had piled up together.

When we were eventually allowed back in the water was still sluicing around and the depth would change by 6-7 ft in a few seconds. This continued for several days.

Anyway, what I'm saying is... Tsunami warnings need to be taken very seriously as even a minor one can cause a lot of damage.

See my wife's blog written at the time here... http://sailingjeannius.blogspot.com.es/2010/02/day-53-galapagos-270210.html and a video (not very dramatic) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0r97yLlaDw

Wow! Great report, another experience to have under your belt.
This year in the Caribbean has so far been quiet, trying not to mention the H word.
I hope we don't get a surprise with Kicking Up Jenny and Montserrate.
They say Jenny would effect the leeward islands in about an hour and Montserrate about 20 minutes