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New red cross.. #263829
09/14/2021 11:35 AM
09/14/2021 11:35 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
...looks to heading towards the island chain. We should keep an eye on this one.

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Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263833
09/14/2021 12:10 PM
09/14/2021 12:10 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,089
BVI
Zanshin Online content
Traveler
Zanshin  Online Content
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,089
BVI
I've been watching this one for 2 days. It will be a couple more days before the models begin to align, at the moment it looks like this:

[Linked Image]

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263848
09/14/2021 03:29 PM
09/14/2021 03:29 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263862
09/15/2021 09:03 AM
09/15/2021 09:03 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 180
Virgin Gorda, BVI
V
VirginGordaResident Offline
Traveler
VirginGordaResident  Offline
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V
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 180
Virgin Gorda, BVI
***whispers*** "north, north, go north young fellow"

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263879
09/15/2021 01:35 PM
09/15/2021 01:35 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI
Trending N in todays forecast track******** in same site as earlier

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL95

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263903
09/16/2021 09:39 AM
09/16/2021 09:39 AM
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 417
Northern IL
bagsarepacked Offline
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bagsarepacked  Offline
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 417
Northern IL
I really do not like September any more frown

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263904
09/16/2021 11:12 AM
09/16/2021 11:12 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,089
BVI
Zanshin Online content
Traveler
Zanshin  Online Content
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,089
BVI
I like using the spaghetti models, I choose the projected storm path I like best and just ignore the other ones as they are evidently incorrect.

That's my method and I'm sticking to it smile

Last edited by Zanshin; 09/16/2021 11:13 AM.
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263910
09/16/2021 12:49 PM
09/16/2021 12:49 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
The further west this goes before starting its northern turn the more it concerns me...

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263929
09/16/2021 09:18 PM
09/16/2021 09:18 PM
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 794
Manhattan Beach, CA
calsail Online content
Traveler
calsail  Online Content
Traveler
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 794
Manhattan Beach, CA
It’s going to go north πŸ™πŸ™ Now an orange x

Last edited by calsail; 09/16/2021 09:19 PM.
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263936
09/17/2021 09:12 AM
09/17/2021 09:12 AM
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
F
Flagler Paul Offline
Traveler
Flagler Paul  Offline
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F
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
In case you did not know, you can use Tropical Tidbits to get these spaghetti tracks and other good info. Yes, the projection is clearly shifting north. Appears the BVI will be affected Tuesday. We arrive Wednesday afternoon, obviously watching this closely. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263993
09/19/2021 09:24 AM
09/19/2021 09:24 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
Now named Peter, but looks to be headed north of the islands, as a tropical storm.


Carol Hill
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263996
09/19/2021 12:25 PM
09/19/2021 12:25 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,379
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Look behind "Peter"...oops.

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #263998
09/19/2021 01:37 PM
09/19/2021 01:37 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
TD Seventeen is no threat to anybody except fishes..


Carol Hill
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Carol_Hill] #264001
09/19/2021 02:53 PM
09/19/2021 02:53 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,224
USVI
Originally Posted by Carol_Hill
TD Seventeen is no threat to anybody except fishes..

And Ships/vessels at sea in the area.

Re: New red cross.. [Re: LocalSailor] #264008
09/19/2021 05:27 PM
09/19/2021 05:27 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,294
Central Florida!
OK, but ships should be able to sail out of harm's way.


Carol Hill
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264014
09/19/2021 08:17 PM
09/19/2021 08:17 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 233
Va Beach
Kmon Offline
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Kmon  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 233
Va Beach
Another disturbance is coming off of Africa (after Peter and Rose). It's already given a 50% chance of formation. Hope it goes out to sea like the other two!

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264015
09/19/2021 08:58 PM
09/19/2021 08:58 PM
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
F
Flagler Paul Offline
Traveler
Flagler Paul  Offline
Traveler
F
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
Peter seems to be a nothingburger, but there is a new storm coming off Africa to watch

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264089
09/21/2021 10:32 AM
09/21/2021 10:32 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 180
Virgin Gorda, BVI
V
VirginGordaResident Offline
Traveler
VirginGordaResident  Offline
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V
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 180
Virgin Gorda, BVI
Hooooo boy. We might be in for something next Thursdayish.... Invest 98 -> Hurricane Sam. This is the Windy forecast for the BVI next Thursday the 30th

Attached Files Screen Shot 2021-09-21 at 10.27.53 AM.pngScreen Shot 2021-09-21 at 10.28.50 AM.png
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264091
09/21/2021 10:48 AM
09/21/2021 10:48 AM
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
F
Flagler Paul Offline
Traveler
Flagler Paul  Offline
Traveler
F
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 12
Flagler Beach, FL
The early spaghetti plots show 98L (Sam) starting a turn north before it crosses 55W roughly in 7 days. Currently projected to be a Cat 1. Obviously things can change. Follow Levi Cowan's excellent website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264117
09/21/2021 03:42 PM
09/21/2021 03:42 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,129
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,129
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
98L is showing a north turn missing the BVI's


tpcook
Re: New red cross.. [Re: Manpot] #264338
09/24/2021 10:15 AM
09/24/2021 10:15 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,129
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,129
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
Sam (98l) is currently projected to pass north of the BVI.s as a cat 3 or 4 so a major hurricane


tpcook

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