NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
203 PM AST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING SOMEWHAT THE INSTABILITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND SOME DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN AT MID LEVELS. THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A POLAR TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

Sunday and Monday look like veranda sitting time again...



I do not see any meaningful BVI swell from any direction for the next 7 days.