Forums39
Topics38,687
Posts312,725
Members26,570
|
Most Online2,218 Jan 21st, 2020
|
|
26 registered members (MACC60, GeorgeC1, Kennys, onlymedication, wct49, bbeach, Flotsam, xrayman67, Scubacat, RichiT, IWIWSE, MikeBiondo, Memphré, Fitzhughlaw, MrEZgoin, ARC, fabila, alecu7, bailau, lhbsurf, Uksimonusa, Manpot, 4 invisible),
1,256
guests, and 111
spiders. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Interesting ...
#135011
07/07/2017 06:57 PM
07/07/2017 06:57 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
Elmtone1
OP
Traveler
|
OP
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
|
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: Elmtone1]
#135012
07/07/2017 07:04 PM
07/07/2017 07:04 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
Elmtone1
OP
Traveler
|
OP
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
|
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: Elmtone1]
#135013
07/08/2017 09:39 AM
07/08/2017 09:39 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597 Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
|
Pure rubbish. There are no models that have any validity that far out in time.
Walker Mangum Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: wmangum]
#135014
07/08/2017 04:59 PM
07/08/2017 04:59 PM
|
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,171 Rincón PR
casailor53
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,171
Rincón PR
|
wmangum said: Pure rubbish. There are no models that have any validity that far out in time. While I see your point, why would they waste the MIPS to run them that far out? Worst case scenario? Or?
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: casailor53]
#135015
07/08/2017 06:44 PM
07/08/2017 06:44 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597 Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
|
MIPs are more or less free these days.
Models might be good for long-term meso-scale trends, but no model can predict a week ahead with any semblance of reliability something as chaotic as birth and development of a storm.
Even after a tropical disturbance begins, none of the models can predict anything more than a 2 or 3 days ahead with any accuracy.
"Four" was an excellent example. It apparently had no internet connection and failed to read the predictions of what it was supposed to do.
Walker Mangum Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: casailor53]
#135017
07/09/2017 09:32 AM
07/09/2017 09:32 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597 Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
|
Because they can. They could let the model run forever into the future if they wanted to. They probably do give some indication global-scale trends at 7 days. They also give some guidance about tracks of existing storms as far as 7 days out - the farther out, the less accurate.
But predicting the origin and track of a non-existent storm 7 days in the future is totally meaningless.
Walker Mangum Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
|
|
|
Re: Interesting ...
[Re: wmangum]
#135019
07/10/2017 09:06 AM
07/10/2017 09:06 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 308 Tampa, FL
denverd0n
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 308
Tampa, FL
|
wmangum said:"Four" was an excellent example. It apparently had no internet connection and failed to read the predictions of what it was supposed to do. Well said!
|
|
|
|