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Interesting ... #135011
07/07/2017 06:57 PM
07/07/2017 06:57 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
E
Elmtone1 Offline OP
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Elmtone1  Offline OP
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21

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Re: Interesting ... [Re: Elmtone1] #135012
07/07/2017 07:04 PM
07/07/2017 07:04 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21
E
Elmtone1 Offline OP
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Elmtone1  Offline OP
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 21

Re: Interesting ... [Re: Elmtone1] #135013
07/08/2017 09:39 AM
07/08/2017 09:39 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum Offline
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wmangum  Offline
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Cow Wreck Beach
Pure rubbish. There are no models that have any validity that far out in time.


Walker Mangum
Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
Re: Interesting ... [Re: wmangum] #135014
07/08/2017 04:59 PM
07/08/2017 04:59 PM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
casailor53 Offline
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casailor53  Offline
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Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
Quote
wmangum said:
Pure rubbish. There are no models that have any validity that far out in time.

While I see your point, why would they waste the MIPS to run them that far out? Worst case scenario? Or?

Re: Interesting ... [Re: casailor53] #135015
07/08/2017 06:44 PM
07/08/2017 06:44 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum Offline
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wmangum  Offline
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Cow Wreck Beach
MIPs are more or less free these days.

Models might be good for long-term meso-scale trends, but no model can predict a week ahead with any semblance of reliability something as chaotic as birth and development of a storm.

Even after a tropical disturbance begins, none of the models can predict anything more than a 2 or 3 days ahead with any accuracy.

"Four" was an excellent example. It apparently had no internet connection and failed to read the predictions of what it was supposed to do.


Walker Mangum
Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
Re: Interesting ... [Re: wmangum] #135016
07/09/2017 08:34 AM
07/09/2017 08:34 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
casailor53 Offline
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casailor53  Offline
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Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
you didn't really answer my question, though...why run the models so far out then?

Re: Interesting ... [Re: casailor53] #135017
07/09/2017 09:32 AM
07/09/2017 09:32 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597
Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum Offline
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wmangum  Offline
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Because they can. They could let the model run forever into the future if they wanted to. They probably do give some indication global-scale trends at 7 days. They also give some guidance about tracks of existing storms as far as 7 days out - the farther out, the less accurate.

But predicting the origin and track of a non-existent storm 7 days in the future is totally meaningless.


Walker Mangum
Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
Re: Interesting ... [Re: wmangum] #135018
07/09/2017 03:58 PM
07/09/2017 03:58 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 933
Georgia & South Carolina
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Deepcut Offline
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Deepcut  Offline
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Georgia & South Carolina
PERHAPS: Running the model out so far will ONEDAY result in a human saying; "Used to be the models were never accurate out to 5(6 or 7) days, but recently with advances in models, we NOW see that the MIP is resulting in some accuracy ".

Not there yet. Maybe some day!


Wes
s/v Sea Tiger (2022 Lagoon 46)
www.BareBoatBVI.com

Re: Interesting ... [Re: wmangum] #135019
07/10/2017 09:06 AM
07/10/2017 09:06 AM
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 308
Tampa, FL
denverd0n Offline
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denverd0n  Offline
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Tampa, FL
Quote
wmangum said:"Four" was an excellent example. It apparently had no internet connection and failed to read the predictions of what it was supposed to do.

Well said!


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