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pat
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StormCarib has closest point about 80 miles. Not a direct hit but how much more wind and rain can the infrastructure take? It's Sint Maarten worst nightmare come to life. I continue to pray.
Rick and Grace
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Joined: Jul 2013
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Laser 101 is getting the message about Jose out. They are fully aware.
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...JOSE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 58.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla.
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Hurricane Warning for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,664 Likes: 3
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000 WTNT32 KNHC 082352 TCPAT2
BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 JOSE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 58.8W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,278
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They're saying the only positive is that they can use the water and fill buckets and collect rainwater.
"It is good to do nothing all day, and then to rest"
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,664 Likes: 3
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0 WTNT32 KNHC 090242 TCPAT2
BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER... ...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 59.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur overnight and on Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected after that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,664 Likes: 3
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Someone on laser 101 just gave closest point of approach update as 69 miles which is quite closer than it was earlier today.
It is making a bit of a turn unfortunately closer to SXM
Last few hours it has been paralleling the IRMA track just a few miles south
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Joined: Apr 2005
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017
...JOSE HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 60.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
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Posts: 7,664 Likes: 3
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,664 Likes: 3
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Joined: Apr 2005
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017
...JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 60.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua has downgraded the Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Antigua.
The government of Antigua has downgraded the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua to a Tropical Storm Watch.
The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John * Antigua
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 60.7 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,288
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For Sxm, this Jose has made a nice right turn to North
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