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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203161
08/25/2019 01:24 PM
08/25/2019 01:24 PM
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Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 216 Dana Point
captdennyj
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 216
Dana Point
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It is pretty early to be predicting the exact path of Dorian.
For Safety :
There are indicators that we would add into our personal planning, especially in September, and October in the Caribbean. ( September Remember ).
One indicator is the warmer temps of the ocean which feeds the power of a hurricane. That water has been heating up all summer .
As to the path of Dorian, there is also the Coriolis Effect due the the spinning of the planet. In the northern hemisphere, the Coriolis Effect tends to deflect objects to the right. And it is important in regard to cyclonic weather systems. Look at the predicted path of Dorian, and it will show it will curve ....that is the Coriolis Effect.
They usually veer to toward the north .
As to hurricanes , again that is up to mother nature, and other weather systems as to tracks, and colder water to diminish their power .
For those heading down to the BVI during hurricane season, stay up on the hurricane centers updates. A short time ago, most of you are well aware of the September hurricanes , Irma and Marie.
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As to early predictions, and all of their computer models, and warnings, or guesses that the system will go to the south.... and base your vacation and family safety on those early WAG's..... well, all of you have the choice to do what you wish.
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Hurricane Fact : Now this was Kauai Island Hawaii. We had many hurricanes over many years headed across the pacific toward our island. Many times the colder water, or wind shear, or hitting the neighbor islands high mountains first, the systems would lose strength or go to the south or north of us....and those factors kept Kauai safe. Yep, could be lots of rain, high surf, and stronger winds, but not catostrophic.
Then came hurricane INIKI.....and everyone, as usual , was watching its progress, and the people prepared with loading up with provisions, plus lots of water and shopping carts full of toilet paper. Cracked me up our first year there in COSTCO, with large carts filled and piled high with T.P and bottled water. We followed the locals procedures.
The hurricane center tracking showed INIKI cat 4 was going to pass to the south of our island. But still the people prepared. And they still do.
It looked like a miss to the south, when all of sudden, in made a sharp 90 degree right hand turn to the north and hit Kauai full force dead center. The destruction was horrendous. The month was SEPTEMBER. For the 10 yrs that we lived on Kauai, we and the island still continued to prepare for any hurricanes headed toward the islands. It was never treated indifferently .
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The above is for your safety, and awareness, and perhaps share with those who are September and October visitors.
In the BVI , for many years there was no major problem ,,,,and the IRMA AND MARIE....
Your choice as to your vacation plans . Might possibly stay alert and keep up with the Hurricane Center Reports. it could increase in intensity or just flat run out of energy and down grade or veer and be a total miss...
Another thought, Even without a direct hit, the weather and ocean conditions can be less than ideal for land or sailing fun in the BVI.
We pray that it will lose energy and miss the BVI, they do not need to go thru another Irma.
.
Last edited by captdennyj; 08/25/2019 01:35 PM.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203181
08/25/2019 05:18 PM
08/25/2019 05:18 PM
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347 USVI
LocalSailor
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
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At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) GOOD Tracking Site: http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203196
08/26/2019 07:01 AM
08/26/2019 07:01 AM
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 89 Mebane, NC
mriley4955
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 89
Mebane, NC
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Great Site for tracking, thanks for sharing. I also find www.Windy.com a great site for forecasting as well. https://www.windy.com/?15.178,-66.378,5
Last edited by mriley4955; 08/26/2019 07:02 AM.
I spent all my money on "Boats", "Broads", and "Booze"; the rest I wasted!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: Manpot]
#203326
08/28/2019 06:15 AM
08/28/2019 06:15 AM
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Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 503
ski2play
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 503
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Love to hear some updates from friends on island... Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.
Last edited by ski2play; 08/28/2019 06:17 AM.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203328
08/28/2019 06:35 AM
08/28/2019 06:35 AM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092
GA/NC
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It looks like the BVI will sustain tropical storm force winds and parts of the USVI will see minimal hurricane force winds. Hopefully overall damage will be light. Track has not followed projections however intensity has been right on. Max wind speed until North of the Virgins not predicted over 70mph. Fingers crossed that it does not strengthen! G
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 06:35 AM.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203334
08/28/2019 09:53 AM
08/28/2019 09:53 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,956 St. John, USVI
RickG
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,956
St. John, USVI
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NHC issued hurricane warning for USVI, PR, Vieques, Culebra at 0800.
I heard from our caretaker at Puerto del Rey, the marina is locked down at noon today. All the boats near us in the yard are secured and the hurricane straps are tight. I'm glad we are secured and not seeking shelter. This is a good test drive. But, we are missing living on the boat! Grenada next summer.
Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes, 2003 Beneteau 423 Grenada
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: ski2play]
#203337
08/28/2019 10:50 AM
08/28/2019 10:50 AM
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359 Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
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Love to hear some updates from friends on island... Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe. Dark and heavy rain in CGB now. Had a strong initial burst of wind but I'd guess it's only blowing 20kts now. All the CGB webcams are still up!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203338
08/28/2019 11:02 AM
08/28/2019 11:02 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,008 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,008
Central Florida!
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Hurricane warning issued for the BVIs on the 11:00 AM guidance!! Stay safe, people!
From the NHC--
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:
Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely to occur.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/28/2019 11:08 AM.
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203342
08/28/2019 11:55 AM
08/28/2019 11:55 AM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092
GA/NC
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The bad news is that it will be a direct hit on the BVI. The good news is the highest wind forecast at the airport is 50 mph. Really a tropical storm. Edit: Still classified as a tropical storm. G
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 11:59 AM.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: RacerRon]
#203363
08/28/2019 01:54 PM
08/28/2019 01:54 PM
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 229 West Chester, PA
ligot
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 229
West Chester, PA
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Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty! Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!
S/V Tortuga Lagoon 46
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: ligot]
#203367
08/28/2019 02:17 PM
08/28/2019 02:17 PM
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 89 Mebane, NC
mriley4955
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 89
Mebane, NC
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Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty! Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks! Check out Cane Garden Bay cam. There are 3 Cats all riding nicely. Hardly a wave!
I spent all my money on "Boats", "Broads", and "Booze"; the rest I wasted!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203369
08/28/2019 02:18 PM
08/28/2019 02:18 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,008 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,008
Central Florida!
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Officially now a hurricane, 82 mph sustained at Buck Island USVI, with wind gusts of 111 mph!! Stay safe everyone!!
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203384
08/28/2019 03:05 PM
08/28/2019 03:05 PM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,092
GA/NC
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Peak wind so far at the STT airport 61knots or about 71 MPH
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 03:22 PM.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203423
08/28/2019 07:42 PM
08/28/2019 07:42 PM
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 120 Birmingham, Alabama
RSki
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 120
Birmingham, Alabama
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Looks like Florida is next in line. Might be some out islands also ..
Last edited by RSki; 08/28/2019 07:44 PM. Reason: Add to
Rick
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203454
08/29/2019 11:06 AM
08/29/2019 11:06 AM
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Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 118
Rush
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 118
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#203480
08/29/2019 07:24 PM
08/29/2019 07:24 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
sail445
OP
Traveler
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OP
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
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The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities. Sure all their boats are still under repair from Irma
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: sail445]
#203483
08/29/2019 09:28 PM
08/29/2019 09:28 PM
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 804 Kannapolis, NC
ndfaninnc
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 804
Kannapolis, NC
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Just chatted with Sherwin on Anegada. All is good and they have power.
Go Irish!!
Bill
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
[Re: RSki]
#203488
08/30/2019 06:48 AM
08/30/2019 06:48 AM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,275 Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,275
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
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Jim Cantore from the weather channel is at Waldos In Vero Beach. Not a good sign! I am considering evacuation from my Vero Beach home. Don't want to live in a box with steel shutters and no a/c I have a generator (from my old home) but it will not power up the a/c. Tracks and wind speed are not good. Same hurricane brushed my almost rebuilt Virgin Gorda home which was completely destroyed by IRMA
Last edited by tpcook; 08/30/2019 06:50 AM.
tpcook
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