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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226345
05/10/2020 04:09 PM
05/10/2020 04:09 PM
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,711 Memphis, BVI, CT
RatmansWife
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,711
Memphis, BVI, CT
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I wouldn't put any non-refundable money down anywhere right now. You don't want any limits on your vacation - mandatory quarantine or otherwise. IMO, even when things re-open, demand will not rebound immediately, and boats will still be available at good prices. Flights will be the other issue, as so many have been canceled.
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226354
05/10/2020 06:05 PM
05/10/2020 06:05 PM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,155 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,155
GA/NC
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You are out of the main hurricane time frame and it’s the inter line regatta which generates a tremendous amount of revenue for the BVI. If they slip the opening date past 2 Sep I suspect they would allow a reopening for the regatta. It’s the first big event leading into the high season. G
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 05/10/2020 06:15 PM.
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226362
05/10/2020 09:29 PM
05/10/2020 09:29 PM
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720 Massachusetts
maytrix
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720
Massachusetts
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I agree, but I don't think it is being pessimistic - just realistic. Without rapid testing or a vaccine, I don't see how the islands or any place where they can't handle an outbreak could allow in those at risk. And we have a boat in charter there so I would love to see people back asap. Aside from the above 2 items to allow visitors in, I could also see them allowing in those already infected, if we truly determine past infection does give future immunity.
There's a lot of time between now and Sept/Oct though so a lot could happen. I'm hopeful some significant progress is made. Even just reliable rapid testing would be a huge means for preventing those who are infected from traveling.
Matt
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#226423
05/11/2020 10:53 PM
05/11/2020 10:53 PM
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 945 Georgia & South Carolina
Deepcut
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 945
Georgia & South Carolina
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Even though it’s early in the process Georgia seems to be doing fine after reopening their economy despite thousands of people pouring in from other states. G At my hospital in Georgia, we are testing everyone scheduled for elective surgery, endoscopy, heart catherization. Yesterday, 3 people were tested "positive" and do not/have not had any symptoms. But this will make our numbers climb significantly due to much more widespread testing. The truly important cases are those who are very ill or dead. So rising numbers may not tell the true story. Dr In Georgia/ Wishing I was sailing!
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: DaveZ]
#226442
05/12/2020 12:54 PM
05/12/2020 12:54 PM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584 Oak Park, IL
TomGarvey
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Traveler
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Posts: 584
Oak Park, IL
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I've looked at the numbers, and according to the CDC ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), over the last 10 years annual deaths in the US from flu have ranged from 12,000 to 61,000, with no social distancing. Over the course of 3+ months we're at ~80,000 so far even with social distancing, and Dr. Fauci and others consider 80k to be a significant undercount. Comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu are specious and dangerous.
Last edited by TomGarvey; 05/12/2020 01:10 PM.
Tom Garvey
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226447
05/12/2020 02:55 PM
05/12/2020 02:55 PM
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 886 Louisville, KY
NoelHall
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Traveler
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Posts: 886
Louisville, KY
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Want to get really scary? CDC (10 year) average cases of seasonal flu: 48,000,000 Average deaths from seasonal flu: 43,000 Ratio of cases to deaths: 0.1% (Note: Life as usual, no protective measures.) Then comes Covid-19 and within three months we have 1,356,037 confirmed cases and 81,571 deaths, or a mortality ratio of 6.0%. (Note: This is with social distancing, masks, and lockdowns.) What if ….. Covid-19 was left to it's own, with life as usual? Could it spread to a number like the flu? The math would then be about 3 million deaths. I am aware this speculative analysis does not include those cases where individuals have recovered and never been tested. I'm thinking the true contagion and mortality rates are yet to be confirmed. Until then it seems we are in unchartered waters.
Noel Hall "It is humbling indeed, to discover my own opinion is only correct less than 50% of the time." www.noelhall.com
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#226448
05/12/2020 02:58 PM
05/12/2020 02:58 PM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584 Oak Park, IL
TomGarvey
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584
Oak Park, IL
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Yes, in three years, maybe even sooner, it will be. We're certainly not close to that yet. Given their limited medical treatment capacity, I think the BVI is being smart to keep the territory closed. They'll definitely need significant financial support, as will any tourism-based economy. Hopefully, the UK will step up.
Tom Garvey
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: sail445]
#226488
05/13/2020 09:02 AM
05/13/2020 09:02 AM
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359 Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
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Do you understand that if the BVI stay closed for a few more months that the economy will be almost wiped out and they’ll have to beg the UK which is under stress for funds I guess we'll find out for sure because I don't see it opening before September and then it's basically closed for another 6-8 weeks for hurricane season. Cruise ships were banned on 14 March and borders closed 23 March so it's basically a 7 month closure if we get to open after hurricane season. Irma was probably similar or a little longer and most people survived. Big difference this time is everyone is still financially recovering from Irma. I think the tough part of reopening will be the govt. restrictions. Will people want to vacation here if face masks are mandatory? Quarantines will not go away until the country you've travelled from has lower infection numbers and no vacation travelers are going to be interested in being quarantined.
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: sail445]
#226496
05/13/2020 10:10 AM
05/13/2020 10:10 AM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584 Oak Park, IL
TomGarvey
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584
Oak Park, IL
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Yes, I’m aware of that. The closure is already having major economic impact and it’s going to get worse. It’s uncertain how people will weather the impact. What is certain is that opening up to visitors from the rest of the world would cost hundreds of lives. There are no good choices for the BVI or the US for that matter. In about a week we’ll start to see the results of Georgia’s experiment. I respect the BVI government for not being willing to experiment with their people’s lives.
And, as Jason points out, the basic precautions that would be required to allow visitors in would deter most visitors anyway.
Tom Garvey
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226521
05/13/2020 07:57 PM
05/13/2020 07:57 PM
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Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,448 Miramichi NB Canada
Sandsailsun
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,448
Miramichi NB Canada
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As a nurse working in Public Health in east coast Canada I will just add that a second wave is a real probability in the fall and a global safe vaccine is not close so I am looking at 2021 ..that is ......if the Pandemic response is lifted and global spread has slowed
I too worry about the BVI economy and my friends
I was supposed to be on a plane this coming Friday for 2 weeks of sailing then a week on Anegada so my heart hurts a little right now ...but I am healthy and praying I stay that way .
Stay safe my friends
Kim
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: sail445]
#226527
05/13/2020 11:22 PM
05/13/2020 11:22 PM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584 Oak Park, IL
TomGarvey
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 584
Oak Park, IL
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They have seven reported cases and one death, but yes, that’s the purpose of the quarantine, to keep people healthy. It’s working pretty well.
Tom Garvey
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Re: need some advice re: BVI charter
[Re: GeorgiaGirl2]
#226528
05/13/2020 11:33 PM
05/13/2020 11:33 PM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 856 Houston, Texas
louismcc
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 856
Houston, Texas
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We were due to start our charter on 07/03 but have now pushed it to 07/02/2021. Disappointed for sure but there are a lot more people facing uncertainty in the BVI that makes our disappointment seem somehow unimportant.
Louis from Houston
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