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Hurricane Dorian #203115
08/24/2019 12:28 PM
08/24/2019 12:28 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
sail445 Offline OP
Traveler
sail445  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/28/2019 01:17 PM.
BVI Sponsors
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203129
08/24/2019 03:22 PM
08/24/2019 03:22 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 549
Georgia & South Carolina
D
Deepcut Offline
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Deepcut  Offline
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D
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 549
Georgia & South Carolina
Well, September is almost here


Wes
s/v Sea Tiger (Lagoon 42)
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203149
08/25/2019 09:28 AM
08/25/2019 09:28 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,884
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,884
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
Going south. No problem


tpcook
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: tpcook] #203152
08/25/2019 09:35 AM
08/25/2019 09:35 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Hopefully no problem for the BVIs and SXM. Fingers crossed.


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: tpcook] #203153
08/25/2019 09:37 AM
08/25/2019 09:37 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
Not far enough south for me to have a warm and fuzzy at this point.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203156
08/25/2019 11:02 AM
08/25/2019 11:02 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 15,951
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline
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Manpot  Offline
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Posts: 15,951
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
I thought Irma was going south too.....

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203161
08/25/2019 12:24 PM
08/25/2019 12:24 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 200
Dana Point
C
captdennyj Offline
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captdennyj  Offline
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C
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 200
Dana Point
It is pretty early to be predicting the exact path of Dorian.

For Safety :

There are indicators that we would add into our personal planning, especially in September, and October in the Caribbean. ( September Remember ).

One indicator is the warmer temps of the ocean which feeds the power of a hurricane. That water has been heating up all summer .

As to the path of Dorian, there is also the Coriolis Effect due the the spinning of the planet. In the northern hemisphere,
the Coriolis Effect tends to deflect objects to the right. And it is important in regard to cyclonic weather systems.
Look at the predicted path of Dorian, and it will show it will curve ....that is the Coriolis Effect.

They usually veer to toward the north .

As to hurricanes , again that is up to mother nature, and other weather systems as to tracks, and colder water to diminish their power .

For those heading down to the BVI during hurricane season, stay up on the hurricane centers updates. A short time ago,
most of you are well aware of the September hurricanes , Irma and Marie.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As to early predictions, and all of their computer models, and warnings, or guesses that the system will go to the south.... and base your vacation and
family safety on those early WAG's..... well, all of you have the choice to do what you wish.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Fact : Now this was Kauai Island Hawaii. We had many hurricanes over many years headed across the pacific toward our island.
Many times the colder water, or wind shear, or hitting the neighbor islands high mountains first, the systems would lose strength or go to the south or
north of us....and those factors kept Kauai safe. Yep, could be lots of rain, high surf, and stronger winds, but not catostrophic.

Then came hurricane INIKI.....and everyone, as usual , was watching its progress, and the people prepared with loading up with provisions, plus
lots of water and shopping carts full of toilet paper. Cracked me up our first year there in COSTCO, with large carts filled and piled high with
T.P and bottled water. We followed the locals procedures.


The hurricane center tracking showed INIKI cat 4 was going to pass to the south of our island. But still the people prepared. And they still do.

It looked like a miss to the south, when all of sudden, in made a sharp 90 degree right hand turn to the north and hit Kauai full force dead center. The destruction
was horrendous. The month was SEPTEMBER. For the 10 yrs that we lived on Kauai, we and the island still continued to prepare for any hurricanes
headed toward the islands. It was never treated indifferently .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above is for your safety, and awareness, and perhaps share with those who are September and October visitors.

In the BVI , for many years there was no major problem ,,,,and the IRMA AND MARIE....

Your choice as to your vacation plans . Might possibly stay alert and keep up with the Hurricane Center Reports. it could increase
in intensity or just flat run out of energy and down grade or veer and be a total miss...

Another thought, Even without a direct hit, the weather and ocean conditions can be less than ideal for land or sailing fun in the BVI.

We pray that it will lose energy and miss the BVI, they do not need to go thru another Irma.


.




Last edited by captdennyj; 08/25/2019 12:35 PM.
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203181
08/25/2019 04:18 PM
08/25/2019 04:18 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

GOOD Tracking Site:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203196
08/26/2019 06:01 AM
08/26/2019 06:01 AM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
mriley4955 Offline
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mriley4955  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
Great Site for tracking, thanks for sharing.

I also find www.Windy.com a great site for forecasting as well. https://www.windy.com/?15.178,-66.378,5


Last edited by mriley4955; 08/26/2019 06:02 AM.
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203305
08/27/2019 05:05 PM
08/27/2019 05:05 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
Track going more North. Still no warm and fuzzy. Strength is still low on the bright side.
G

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: GeorgeC1] #203307
08/27/2019 05:42 PM
08/27/2019 05:42 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
sail445 Offline OP
Traveler
sail445  Offline OP
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
Dorian seem to be reorganizing a bit and the trajectory is a bit more northerly which should bring it about 40 miles closer to the VI.
Tomorrow mornings NOAA report will be the deciding factor.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203319
08/27/2019 07:55 PM
08/27/2019 07:55 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203322
08/28/2019 12:52 AM
08/28/2019 12:52 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 461
road town
sleepychef Offline
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sleepychef  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 461
road town
TS warning issued

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203323
08/28/2019 12:53 AM
08/28/2019 12:53 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 15,951
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline
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Manpot  Offline
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 15,951
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Love to hear some updates from friends on island...

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: Manpot] #203326
08/28/2019 05:15 AM
08/28/2019 05:15 AM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 462
ski2play Offline
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ski2play  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 462
Originally Posted by Manpot
Love to hear some updates from friends on island...


Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.

Last edited by ski2play; 08/28/2019 05:17 AM.

[Linked Image]
What a rollercoaster ride rebuilding from Hurricane Irma, some days we won, some days we learned.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203328
08/28/2019 05:35 AM
08/28/2019 05:35 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
It looks like the BVI will sustain tropical storm force winds and parts of the USVI will see minimal hurricane force winds. Hopefully overall damage will be light. Track has not followed projections however intensity has been right on. Max wind speed until North of the Virgins not predicted over 70mph. Fingers crossed that it does not strengthen!
G

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 05:35 AM.
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203334
08/28/2019 08:53 AM
08/28/2019 08:53 AM
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,609
St. John, USVI
RickG Offline
Traveler
RickG  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,609
St. John, USVI
NHC issued hurricane warning for USVI, PR, Vieques, Culebra at 0800.

I heard from our caretaker at Puerto del Rey, the marina is locked down at noon today. All the boats near us in the yard are secured and the hurricane straps are tight. I'm glad we are secured and not seeking shelter. This is a good test drive. But, we are missing living on the boat! Grenada next summer.

Cheers, RickG


S/V Echoes, 2003 Benetau 423
St. John, USVI
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: ski2play] #203337
08/28/2019 09:50 AM
08/28/2019 09:50 AM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 1,672
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 1,672
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
Originally Posted by ski2play
Originally Posted by Manpot
Love to hear some updates from friends on island...


Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.

Dark and heavy rain in CGB now. Had a strong initial burst of wind but I'd guess it's only blowing 20kts now. All the CGB webcams are still up!

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203338
08/28/2019 10:02 AM
08/28/2019 10:02 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Hurricane warning issued for the BVIs on the 11:00 AM guidance!! Stay safe, people!

From the NHC--

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/28/2019 10:08 AM.

Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203342
08/28/2019 10:55 AM
08/28/2019 10:55 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
Traveler
GeorgeC1  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
The bad news is that it will be a direct hit on the BVI. The good news is the highest wind forecast at the airport is 50 mph. Really a tropical storm.
Edit: Still classified as a tropical storm.
G

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 10:59 AM.
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203345
08/28/2019 11:36 AM
08/28/2019 11:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 57
North Carolina
R
RacerRon Offline
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RacerRon  Offline
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R
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 57
North Carolina
Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!



[Linked Image]
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: RacerRon] #203363
08/28/2019 12:54 PM
08/28/2019 12:54 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 153
West Chester, PA
ligot Offline
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ligot  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 153
West Chester, PA
Originally Posted by RacerRon
Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!


Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!


S/V Tortuga
Lagoon 46

[Linked Image]

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: ligot] #203367
08/28/2019 01:17 PM
08/28/2019 01:17 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
mriley4955 Offline
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mriley4955  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
Originally Posted by ligot
Originally Posted by RacerRon
Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!


Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!



Check out Cane Garden Bay cam. There are 3 Cats all riding nicely. Hardly a wave!

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203368
08/28/2019 01:17 PM
08/28/2019 01:17 PM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,371
An island state of mind
tradewinds Offline
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tradewinds  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,371
An island state of mind
Just upgraded to a Cat 1. There were boats in Cane Garden Bay earlier.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203369
08/28/2019 01:18 PM
08/28/2019 01:18 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 69,836
Central Florida!
Officially now a hurricane, 82 mph sustained at Buck Island USVI, with wind gusts of 111 mph!! Stay safe everyone!!


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203384
08/28/2019 02:05 PM
08/28/2019 02:05 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
Peak wind so far at the STT airport 61knots or about 71 MPH

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 02:22 PM.
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203388
08/28/2019 02:10 PM
08/28/2019 02:10 PM
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 147
multimedia Offline
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multimedia  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 147


Guitar player for Da Tree Men
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203398
08/28/2019 03:27 PM
08/28/2019 03:27 PM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,371
An island state of mind
tradewinds Offline
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tradewinds  Offline
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Posts: 5,371
An island state of mind
Looks like the ghut by the Elm opened up into the bay.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203402
08/28/2019 03:37 PM
08/28/2019 03:37 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
mriley4955 Offline
Traveler
mriley4955  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 72
Mebane, NC
Just heard from a friend in STT that Road Town Fast Ferry broke free, still trying to get damage report. Also a large barge made it's way up on the rocks at Cruise Ship Pier park.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203409
08/28/2019 04:19 PM
08/28/2019 04:19 PM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 153
Panama City Beach, Florida
xrayman67 Offline
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xrayman67  Offline
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 153
Panama City Beach, Florida
Sure hope the worst is over! Love these islands and their people!

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203423
08/28/2019 06:42 PM
08/28/2019 06:42 PM
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 120
Birmingham, Alabama
RSki Offline
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RSki  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 120
Birmingham, Alabama
Looks like Florida is next in line. Might be some out islands also ..

Last edited by RSki; 08/28/2019 06:44 PM. Reason: Add to

Rick
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203454
08/29/2019 10:06 AM
08/29/2019 10:06 AM
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 32
R
Rush Offline
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Rush  Offline
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R
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 32

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203465
08/29/2019 01:48 PM
08/29/2019 01:48 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,275
GA/NC
The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: GeorgeC1] #203480
08/29/2019 06:24 PM
08/29/2019 06:24 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
sail445 Offline OP
Traveler
sail445  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
Originally Posted by GeorgeC1
The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities.

Sure all their boats are still under repair from Irma

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203481
08/29/2019 07:16 PM
08/29/2019 07:16 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 946
USVI
That was a nasty blow here in STT - many have no power, lots of trees and branches down, some power pole snapped.
The 5am NHC update and satellite imagery showed a serious likelihood of direct hit on the VI's. I went full on shutters and prep at home.
Strong winds, torrential rains - will be a bit of recovery time in STT.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203482
08/29/2019 08:20 PM
08/29/2019 08:20 PM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 57
North Carolina
R
RacerRon Offline
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RacerRon  Offline
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R
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 57
North Carolina
Prayers for all affected, and those in the path!



[Linked Image]
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203483
08/29/2019 08:28 PM
08/29/2019 08:28 PM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 294
Kannapolis, NC
ndfaninnc Offline
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ndfaninnc  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 294
Kannapolis, NC
Just chatted with Sherwin on Anegada. All is good and they have power.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: RSki] #203488
08/30/2019 05:48 AM
08/30/2019 05:48 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,884
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Posts: 3,884
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
Jim Cantore from the weather channel is at Waldos In Vero Beach. Not a good sign! I am considering evacuation from my Vero Beach home. Don't want to live in a box with steel shutters and no a/c I have a generator (from my old home) but it will not power up the a/c. Tracks and wind speed are not good. Same hurricane brushed my almost rebuilt Virgin Gorda home which was completely destroyed by IRMA

Last edited by tpcook; 08/30/2019 05:50 AM.

tpcook
Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203490
08/30/2019 06:28 AM
08/30/2019 06:28 AM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 462
ski2play Offline
Traveler
ski2play  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 462
Oh dear tpcook!
Stay safe and we will be sending good thoughts to you and yours.

Our place on Jost came through Dorian like a rock star! We are grateful.
Even the newly planted coconut palms at Sandy Ground Estates are still standing!


[Linked Image]
What a rollercoaster ride rebuilding from Hurricane Irma, some days we won, some days we learned.

Re: Hurricane Dorian [Re: sail445] #203492
08/30/2019 06:42 AM
08/30/2019 06:42 AM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
sail445 Offline OP
Traveler
sail445  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,633
VI,NY,AZ
Something new coming off Africa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

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