000
WTNT35 KNHC 181440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches could be issued this afternoon or
evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

All projections I've seen is that Jerry will pass well north of St Maarten. It's that new one off the coast of Africa that I'm watching.

Yes, the current projections are for Jerry to pass north of SXM, but they can be wrong. Hopefully it will go north and that other thing will not develop and then HOPEFULLY this conga line of storms will stop!!!

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/182040.shtml?