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Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM #204923
09/19/2019 09:01 AM
09/19/2019 09:01 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
From the NWS

"SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office."

According to Storm Carib current tracking takes Jerry over 100 miles away from SXM, so let's hope it stays at least that far away.


Last edited by Carol_Hill; 09/19/2019 09:06 AM.

Carol Hill
SXM Sponsors
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204924
09/19/2019 09:46 AM
09/19/2019 09:46 AM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Track is now a little more northward. Closest approach 110 miles, TS winds 45 miles out. Sounds promising.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: BillandElaine] #204925
09/19/2019 09:55 AM
09/19/2019 09:55 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Yes, hopefully that track verifies.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204927
09/19/2019 10:38 AM
09/19/2019 10:38 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: BillandElaine] #204935
09/19/2019 12:29 PM
09/19/2019 12:29 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
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sxmmartini  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
Will be gone by Saturday but it was too close for comfort.

Attached Files image.png
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: sxmmartini] #204936
09/19/2019 12:54 PM
09/19/2019 12:54 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Current tracking is now 118 miles away, but it's way too soon to say 'was' with regard to this storm.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204939
09/19/2019 01:01 PM
09/19/2019 01:01 PM
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 750
S
SammyM Offline
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SammyM  Offline
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S
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 750
I think SXM is going to be okay. A little windy, but this one misses the island to the north as projected. They keep saying there's too much "dry wind aloft" so I trust what they're saying on The Weather Channel.

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: SammyM] #204941
09/19/2019 01:06 PM
09/19/2019 01:06 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
I think SXM hopefully should be OK on this one also, but the storm is not past YET...


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204942
09/19/2019 01:10 PM
09/19/2019 01:10 PM
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,244
Connecticut
The_Lurker Offline
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The_Lurker  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,244
Connecticut
Did I read that it was going to be a quiet Year???

duh

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: The_Lurker] #204943
09/19/2019 01:24 PM
09/19/2019 01:24 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Don't know anybody who said that! Here's good info from Crown Weather VIA ISland 92. https://post.futurimedia.com/pjil/p...WhgscDKU1TMhLF-3dwBFqhFb7gReznvA_0QSViVM


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: BillandElaine] #204946
09/19/2019 02:09 PM
09/19/2019 02:09 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Very interesting! Thanks for the link.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204982
09/19/2019 06:14 PM
09/19/2019 06:14 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
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sxmmartini  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
Hurricane Jerry has reached 17.5 and SXM is 18 latitude. My news 13 has it as a Cat 2 tomorrow so hoping it keeps on a NW track and does not wobble South West...

Attached Files image.png
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204987
09/19/2019 06:26 PM
09/19/2019 06:26 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 141
T
Tammy Offline
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Tammy  Offline
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T
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 141
That sounds pretty close.
I wonder what the weather is like on SXM now.

Yes I also hope it continues NW and harms no one.

Right now there is devastating floods in Texas and Spain also.

I hope that the rest of the hurricane season can pass without further harm.


Be the person your dog thinks you are 💫
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Tammy] #204988
09/19/2019 06:33 PM
09/19/2019 06:33 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline OP
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 72,596
Central Florida!
From Storm Carib--"The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.1N, 62.2W or about 153.3 miles (246.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 28 hours and 19 minutes from now (Friday, September 20 at 10:48PM AST)."

153 miles away prediction, as of the 5 PM guidance, which means, if that verifies, should be not even tropical storm force winds. Fingers crossed!!


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Tammy] #204994
09/19/2019 07:28 PM
09/19/2019 07:28 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
It was a beautiful day today today, and a lovely evening so far.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #204996
09/19/2019 07:40 PM
09/19/2019 07:40 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Government and schools are open tomorrow.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205002
09/19/2019 09:12 PM
09/19/2019 09:12 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 25
Philadelphia
M
medskis Offline
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medskis  Offline
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M
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 25
Philadelphia
Overlooking Simpson Bay from Simpson Bay Villas.......almost all the usually moored boats were moved out of the bay this pm and into the lagoon. Swimming in front of “Pelican” was lovely today but definitely more swells than usual.... especially viewable in the distance. We fly at 4 pm Friday so I am happy things look favorable for travel.

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205026
09/20/2019 10:36 AM
09/20/2019 10:36 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
Latest forecast is for St Maarten to get 4-6 inches of rain creating dangerous flash flooding.

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: SXMScubaman] #205034
09/20/2019 11:21 AM
09/20/2019 11:21 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
Jerry has weakened and is moving faster. It will still bring rain to SXM in a few hours.

Attached Files image.jpeg
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205036
09/20/2019 11:26 AM
09/20/2019 11:26 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205037
09/20/2019 11:28 AM
09/20/2019 11:28 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,696
Auburn, WA
http://www.sintmaartengov.org/PressReleases/Pages/EOC-decides-as-precautionary-measure-to-close-schools,-businesses-and-government.-Three-Shelters-to-Open-at-3.00PM.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3z2BkF-bYXIb-JRKiEnbRkA_9nkByY0AkqhWfQU3Fd7NEZNmdOng1oQnc

Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: SXMScubaman] #205038
09/20/2019 11:29 AM
09/20/2019 11:29 AM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Better late than never.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: BillandElaine] #205061
09/20/2019 03:40 PM
09/20/2019 03:40 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,952
Vermont
Time to go inside...

Attached Files image.jpeg
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205066
09/20/2019 04:14 PM
09/20/2019 04:14 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Sun is shining, dead calm as it has been all day.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM [Re: Carol_Hill] #205076
09/20/2019 05:38 PM
09/20/2019 05:38 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
Traveler
BillandElaine  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 17,692
St Maarten
Water and sand have covered the boardwalk.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....

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