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Tropical storm warning issued #230600
07/25/2020 06:26 PM
07/25/2020 06:26 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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This invest 92L is way far from the islands but should be watched for further development ...

Attached Files image.jpeg
Last edited by Carol_Hill; 07/28/2020 11:45 AM.
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230635
07/26/2020 11:42 AM
07/26/2020 11:42 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: SXMScubaman] #230659
07/26/2020 08:07 PM
07/26/2020 08:07 PM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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This is a model forecast...

Attached Files image.jpeg
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230661
07/26/2020 08:45 PM
07/26/2020 08:45 PM
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Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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SXMScubaman  Offline
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Doesn't say much.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: SXMScubaman] #230665
07/26/2020 10:17 PM
07/26/2020 10:17 PM
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wilsonck Offline
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Originally Posted by SXMScubaman
Doesn't say much.


It actually says a lot. Its the HWRF model for Thursday morning that shows the eye of the storm crossing over the island. It also shows the storm's strength at 976 mb which would equate to a category 2 hurricane. Way too early to say yet as its still a tropical wave. Should not really focus on one model prediction though. The official 72 NHC forecast map still has it as a tropical wave on Wednesday, but does say possible tropical cyclone.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: wilsonck] #230688
07/27/2020 09:24 AM
07/27/2020 09:24 AM
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Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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I have no idea what that model forecast means either, but SXM doesn't need another blow, of any nature... cloud


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230696
07/27/2020 09:51 AM
07/27/2020 09:51 AM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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Attached Files image.jpeg
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230716
07/27/2020 01:05 PM
07/27/2020 01:05 PM
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Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Dr. Soc has some recorded info from Crown Weather regarding this system, not quite as bad a prediction as some have been.

Link

Interesting that they are saying that weather predictions are more sketchy these days because of lack of data from airline traffic.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230725
07/27/2020 02:25 PM
07/27/2020 02:25 PM
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Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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🤞

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230727
07/27/2020 02:33 PM
07/27/2020 02:33 PM
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SXMScubaman Offline
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From the Government web page one hour aro.
"** SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN **
DATE ISSUED: Monday, July 27 2020
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure, approximately 1000 miles east-southeast of St Maarten, has become a little less organized since last night (Sunday night). However, environmental conditions are still expected to become favorable for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
** Due to the high likelihood of cyclone formation, a tropical storm watch could be issued for St Maarten.
A small craft advisory, flash flood advisory and severe wind advisory could go into effect for St. Maarten from Wednesday morning.
* Residents and motorists in areas prone to flooding and rock falls should be vigilant and avoid these areas whenever possible.
* Sea users and persons with interests along the coast should exercise extreme caution and secure their property. All sea users and persons close to the sea should make plans to take necessary action.
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
Members of the public are advised to monitor the updates of this system."

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230740
07/27/2020 03:28 PM
07/27/2020 03:28 PM
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smalbany Offline
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Great discussion from the Capital Weather Gang on the storm and the uncertainty of its strength and track. Bottom line: odds are if it crosses SXM it will be a low to moderate tropical storm. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/27/new-tropical-storm-is-likely-form-atlantic-hyperactive-hurricane-season-continues/?hpid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230749
07/27/2020 06:52 PM
07/27/2020 06:52 PM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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This 92L is a huge system that might be a good thing. It will take longer for this system to develop and get a strong center of circulation. It will pass over SXM still a mess but after that it could be a monster!

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230779
07/28/2020 10:57 AM
07/28/2020 10:57 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: SXMScubaman] #230780
07/28/2020 10:59 AM
07/28/2020 10:59 AM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,560
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
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Waiting for NHC any minute now with up to date info.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230783
07/28/2020 11:15 AM
07/28/2020 11:15 AM
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wilsonck Offline
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From the National Hurricane Center in Miami (they did spell St Maarten incorrectly and for sake of quoting I am leaving their error)

Quote
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including
Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat,
St. Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maartin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maartin

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230796
07/28/2020 03:02 PM
07/28/2020 03:02 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,469
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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If you're not aware of it, Storm Carib has an interesting graphic, showing how close a particular storm is projected to come to a particular island. Usually it needs to be a named storm, to have it pre-filled in, but potential tropical cyclone 9 is filled in now.

Link to Storm Carib


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230798
07/28/2020 03:30 PM
07/28/2020 03:30 PM
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New Hampshire, USA
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WayneB Offline
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Carol, not looking good for Montserrat. Projecting to pass within 6 miles. I was there a couple years ago, and they do't need anymore destruction. Beautiful place.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: WayneB] #230800
07/28/2020 03:35 PM
07/28/2020 03:35 PM
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Carol_Hill Offline
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Fortunately will probably only be a tropical storm as it passes there, but flooding could cause some massive landslides there..


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230821
07/28/2020 11:11 PM
07/28/2020 11:11 PM
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Kennys Offline
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Yes people are panicking unnecessarily . We have had a lot of these Tropical storms in the past . Flooding because of lots of rain.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230833
07/29/2020 09:39 AM
07/29/2020 09:39 AM
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Carol_Hill Offline
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Technically not a named storm yet, but government has advised businesses that they should close by 11 AM today.

Link


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230837
07/29/2020 09:52 AM
07/29/2020 09:52 AM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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WOW... PJIA reported a wind gust of 46 mph and possible rainfall 2-4 inches!!!! Send in the MILITARY! Shelter in place and if someone coughs run!

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230848
07/29/2020 10:44 AM
07/29/2020 10:44 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230851
07/29/2020 10:52 AM
07/29/2020 10:52 AM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,560
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
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We closed the house up before bed last night. This morning, opened it all up again and enjoying having a nice breeze through the house and some rain squalls. So far.


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: BillandElaine] #230857
07/29/2020 11:05 AM
07/29/2020 11:05 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,469
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Maho beach cam

doesn't look too bad right now.

Stay safe, everyone!


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230861
07/29/2020 11:10 AM
07/29/2020 11:10 AM
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Auburn, WA
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Sunset beach cam not showing much wave action.
http://sunsetsxm.com/plane-info/

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230862
07/29/2020 11:13 AM
07/29/2020 11:13 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 2,495
Anguilla, British West Indies
NeilRooney Offline
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Pretty low key so far..............


Another Day On Planet Earth
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230863
07/29/2020 11:14 AM
07/29/2020 11:14 AM
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Posts: 18,560
St Maarten
BillandElaine Offline
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Other side of the island is getting the worst of it, but it's still ok. Bright sunshine just now!


Elaine
*********************************
God Bless the broken road....
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: BillandElaine] #230885
07/29/2020 12:12 PM
07/29/2020 12:12 PM
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Maryland/DC Metro
BeachKitten Offline
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Originally Posted by BillandElaine
Other side of the island is getting the worst of it, but it's still ok. Bright sunshine just now!


Any cameras from the other side?


"It is good to do nothing all day, and then to rest" wink
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: BeachKitten] #230886
07/29/2020 12:14 PM
07/29/2020 12:14 PM
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Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
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Non that I know of. What there was got wiped out by Irma.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230889
07/29/2020 12:25 PM
07/29/2020 12:25 PM
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 42
N42.8 W78.8
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sxmParrotfish Offline
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N42.8 W78.8
Not aware of any French side cams. Never replaced post irma


Formerly " Parrotfish" approx join date .. sometime in 2001
SXM lover since 1999...
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230892
07/29/2020 12:39 PM
07/29/2020 12:39 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 2,495
Anguilla, British West Indies
NeilRooney Offline
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Check out this image, zoom in

Accuweather link


Another Day On Planet Earth
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: NeilRooney] #230906
07/29/2020 02:05 PM
07/29/2020 02:05 PM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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The system is large and there is some talk that it might split in two. One system going thru the Mona Passage in a similar track of Dorian and the second system into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)??????

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230921
07/29/2020 06:05 PM
07/29/2020 06:05 PM
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Kennys Offline
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All is well now . Blessings .

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Kennys] #230922
07/29/2020 06:17 PM
07/29/2020 06:17 PM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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Thank you for the update. Have a peaceful night sleep! The sun will come out tomorrow!

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Kennys] #230928
07/29/2020 08:00 PM
07/29/2020 08:00 PM
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Posts: 82,469
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Glad to hear everything is OK.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230956
07/30/2020 09:36 AM
07/30/2020 09:36 AM
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Posts: 82,469
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Tropical storm warning discontinued. Looks like SXM escaped that one... But there's another 'x' coming off of Africa.. cloud


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230958
07/30/2020 09:51 AM
07/30/2020 09:51 AM
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Posts: 82,469
Central Florida!
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Some pictures of minor damage today in the Daily Herald.

Link


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #230965
07/30/2020 10:57 AM
07/30/2020 10:57 AM
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Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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Looks like that is the construction fence along Royal Palm.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: Carol_Hill] #230972
07/30/2020 11:18 AM
07/30/2020 11:18 AM
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sxmmartini Offline OP
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued [Re: sxmmartini] #231079
07/31/2020 11:35 AM
07/31/2020 11:35 AM
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Posts: 18,564
Auburn, WA
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