The numbers from the models equals the forecasted position x hours after the model was run. So the dot nearest the number 96 would equal that models calculation where the storm center would be 4 days later. This time of year there is much greater chance you will see a parade of lows coming across the Atlantic from Africa. We have reached that point in the weather cycle now:



As November progresses the risk of these types of weather patterns greatly decreases. The time to have a boat in the Caribbean is from late November to May of the following year.