Traveltalkonline.com Forums


BVI Cruise Schedule TTOL Sponsors BVI Travel Calendar
Forum Statistics
Forums39
Topics39,307
Posts318,791
Members26,656
Most Online3,755
Sep 23rd, 2024
Top Posters(30 Days)
bdeeley 68
RonDon 36
Kennys 28
erb923 26
jazzgal 22
GaKaye 20
Member Spotlight
Halcyon
Halcyon
Sacramento, California
Posts: 23
Joined: May 2018
Today's Birthdays
KDTenn, MCJgraduate
Who's Online Now
19 members (GeorgeC1, CanuckTravlr, Todd, SXMScubaman, Whale Tail, RatmansWife, xrayman67, Kegoangoango, Kennys, timnboston, Todd_Melinda_K, Uksimonusa, deliveryskipper, 6 invisible), 1,517 guests, and 63 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate Thread
#105745 08/19/2016 07:17 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049

Numbers = Hours or in the case +/- 5/6 days

[Linked Image]

BVI Sponsors
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
SJ The tracking map is very pretty, but I am not a weather girl so could you explain the "numbers=days"? What numbers?

I will be done in November, could you post weather models for the month?

Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,172
Traveler
Online Content
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,172
I vote for the yellow line!
G

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
The numbers from the models equals the forecasted position x hours after the model was run. So the dot nearest the number 96 would equal that models calculation where the storm center would be 4 days later. This time of year there is much greater chance you will see a parade of lows coming across the Atlantic from Africa. We have reached that point in the weather cycle now:

[Linked Image]

As November progresses the risk of these types of weather patterns greatly decreases. The time to have a boat in the Caribbean is from late November to May of the following year.

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Here is a more current set of models where each dot represents 12 hours of time and the numbers near dots represent hours of time for the storm center to reach that dot:

[Linked Image]

The [color:"yellow"]Yellow CMC2[/color] Forecast Model would give the BVI North Winds and Swell in +/- 5 days. The [color:"purple"]Purple HWFI[/color] would deliver South winds and swell in 4-5 days. The point is for the next couple of weeks the weather may be unsettled across the Caribbean.

Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 265
T
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
T
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 265
Go yellow

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Here is one updated BVI wind forecast for 120 hours from now or Thursday:

[Linked Image]

Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
George thank you for post...now I see it is a storm track--I vote yellow, too

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 285
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 285
The numbers on each line represent the number of hours for the storm to reach that point on the line.

Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,680
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,680
There's a ton of Sahara dust behind it, which could help things out.

Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
thanks for the info...didn't know what the numbers represented. It is so helpful when a little explanation is given <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,680
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,680
Looks like there's another one behind it coming off the coast of Africa.

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
The second or third depending on how you count is has a greater likelihood to develop with less chance of impacting the BVI with a more northerly Bermuda like path:

[Linked Image]

The real message is to note how these weather events can line up one right after another from August to even October.

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Actually with the first one 99L purple will take it south and kill it. Yellow may miss the BVI but still become a major weather event for someone.... Wednesday, Thursday... may be very disruptive.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
The first one will go through during the night on Wednesday and the second will pass well to the North.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
The latest forecast have 99L or the first of the two going by to the North on Wednesday and Thursday. The models show any real intensification after the wave or TS has passed the BVI by. In any case the weather across the area will be unsettled mid week at least. Winds will likely swing from the ENE to the south until they are impacted by the next wave or low.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,618
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,618
There ar a ton of very good weather sites available so this info is not difficult to find/track. This is a link to one that many of us on TTOL use to track status.

Wunderground

Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
thanks! bookmarked

Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 559
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 559
Quote
RickinAtlanta said:
There ar a ton of very good weather sites available so this info is not difficult to find/track. This is a link to one that many of us on TTOL use to track status.

Wunderground


I've found this one to be maybe more than you want but certainly just about any information you could possible ever want:

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/


Life's short - sail more!
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,545
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,545
http://www.mawsweather.com/hurrican.html

I like this one too. You can see the big puffs of cloud activity coming from Africa. You can watch the water warm up across the Atlantic. The hurricanes follow the warm water trough across.


Rita
It is better to be happy than it is to be right

[Linked Image]
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 890
Traveler
Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 890
surface water temps are very toasty

[Linked Image]

Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
Traveler
OP Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
With that hot energy packed water all of the makings for a major event are in place. The question is whether or not 99L can surround itself with vertical development or whether shear at high altitudes will keep chopping the head off the infant monster. Some cold cloud tops are evident in the last three frames of the satellite IR loop. We'll see if this is enough to mitigate the shear and allow 99L to develop over fertile breeding grounds in the Bahamas.


Link Copied to Clipboard
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5