I was just reading a story regarding this very topic before I jumped on here. It was about the two main competing factors this season, a much warmer than normal Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico versus a sudden flip in the Pacific from three years of La Nina to El Nino that's also getting stronger faster than predicted. El Nino tends to be good for the Caribbean and the island we all love as the strong westerlies it creates tend to create shear and "blow the tops off" tropical cyclones, and also causes more storms to make an early turn into the North Atlantic and become fish storms. The discussion was about which major climate force would ultimately prevail this season. Historically, El Nino makes for a mild hurricane season...here's to hoping history repeats itself.