A disorganized storm (with little or no perceptible center of rotation) is much more fluid than a hurricane and far more susceptible to all the localized variables that generally do not impact the momentum and track of a hurricane.

The experts completely ignored the large wind shear that was visible even to me! That wind shear extended a long way out from the northern tip of Columbia, just west of Aruba. The shear acted like a brick wall to the lower half of the storm yesterday afternoon. BUT, the northern half of the storm moved inland at the Dominican Republic, and managed to escape the effects of the shear.

They need to stop using computer software developed specifically for hurricane behavior when dealing with a disorganized tropical storm. They are two different animals that behave quite differently. Relatively minor, localized influences have far greater effects on a tropical storm than they do on hurricanes.

What amazes me is that as of the 5:00 am report, they continue to show their models with the storm completely missing Jamaica. Really? http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

This is the only public advisory I could find for Jamaica http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/...-tropical-storm

I think the NHC is playing fast and loose with people’s lives. In my opinion, Jamaica should have been put on storm watch yesterday if not the day before. I also think the Cayman Islands should be watching this storm closely too. Even if it turns out their models are correct, it is better to err on the side of safety than to have a repeat of what happened in Dominica where the people were completely unprepared for what they got.

I am not saying that anything would have been different in Dominica if a storm warning had been in place, but who knows, maybe one less life would have been lost ... maybe more. We will never know.