NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 5 mins · ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
NHC has upgraded Tropical Depression Five to Tropical Storm Dorian. It's centered as of 5 p.m. AST/EDT over the tropical Atlantic Ocean about 725 miles (1165 km) east-southeast of Barbados. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dorian.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Gradual strengthening during the next few days is forecast, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Forecast models are pretty closely clustered therefore Dorian should really pass South. Problem is El Nino has ceased and basically now there is an highway for storms to form. A good weather page for hurricane tracking is spaghettimodels.com (Mike's page) you will find a lot of useful tools such as water temperatures, wind shear, steering currents, upper level winds etc. etc.
Thanks for the update. Pressure is still on the high side and sustained winds are 40 mph. So, for any cruise ships making port in Barbados, St. Lucia or Martinique they may want to alter course next week. But, this looks to be well south of St. Martin and even it makes hurricane status it will likely be no stronger than a Cat 1 storm. No need to change any plans if visiting SXM at this time.
Once more we owe you for local and accurate reporting of serious events We're all targets for rumors and unsubstantiated information. You help clarify the truth. Edward R. Murrow..."You are there". I know that most won't know that reference but some do. Kind of like National Enquirer vs. Fact Check. Thank you.
Computer models have it missing Haiti/ DR and just clipping Puerto Rico. TS Dorian then heads towards the bahamas and reaching Florida for the weekend. Here is a good link for Florida residents... https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/weather/tropical
Lite rain for about 10 minutes here. Pretty bright out just now.
Meteorological Department St.Maarten 11 mins · PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST FOR ST. MAARTEN DATE ISSUED: Tuesday, August 27, 2019 @ 18:00 LST (22:00 UTC) VALID UNTIL: Wednesday evening (18:00 LST) August 28, 2019
WEATHER: Tonight through Wednesday evening: Generally cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
SURFACE WINDS: Tonight: Northeast to east with a moderate to fresh breeze of 13 to 20 miles per hour, and higher gusts. Wednesday: East to southeast with a gentle to moderate breeze of 10 to 18 miles per hour, and possible higher gusts.
SYNOPSIS: The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dorian has arrived over the local area. As a result, increased cloudiness and shower activity is expected through the forecast period. Some of these showers could be heavy at times and may be accompanied by thunderstorms, resulting in some street-flooding and/or rock slides in vulnerable areas. Residents and motorists in these areas are advised to exercise caution when in these areas. Conditions are expected to improve once Dorian starts to move farther west away from our shores by late Wednesday. Seas are expected to remain slight to moderate through the next few days, with waves peaking near 6 feet.
STATE OF THE SEA: Slight to Moderate WAVES/SWELLS: 4 to 6 feet
SPECIAL FEATURE: At 5:00 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 194 miles south of St. Maarten, moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, and pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. The center of Tropical Storm Dorian is projected to pass about 142 miles southwest of St. Maarten early Wednesday, and thus poses no significant threat.
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
OUTLOOK through Thursday evening: Partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated showers.
Elaine ********************************* God Bless the broken road....
With it still being 5 days out, I'll wait a bit longer before fretting about it. Unfortunately the TV news and weather stations have to sensationalize in order to keep viewers. It also causes the complacency as it is the "Sky is falling" mentality. Just my .02 but after 25 years in Sarasota, I have ony put my hurricane shutters up once and that was 2017 for Irma.
Dorian is now a hurricane. Report in the USVI of 82 mph sustained and wind gusts of 111 mph!! Stay safe, everyone! SXM looks to have gotten off pretty easily on this one though.
The weather channel is live now. Dorian over USVI and BVI now. Will continue on to affect Puerto Rico later this evening. Strengthening now. Center northwest of St Thomas now.
East Coast more so and even Gulf Coast Florida need to be on alert in case - expecting a cat 2 or cat 3 strength by then.
Puerto Rico now anxious and preparing. Many homes there still covered with tarps.
Computer models now have a hurricane plowing right through Florida and exiting into the Gulf of Mexico with a possible double landfall... All of Florida should be preparing now.
thanks. Sent Eric out to get gas for the gen this morning. We'll see what the forecast is later before we decide to board up. The current track is about the worst case scenario for us. But of course we have a while to go yet.
This is why I don't live in Florida. But, many relatives there in Port St. Lucie, Ft. Pierce and Winter Park near Orlando. Hopefully, this won't be a full blown Cat 3 when it reaches the Florida coast.
Carol, I just checked that website someone listed here and when I watched it this morning there's something about a high pressure coming from the north east that will bother and determine how storm travels. Could hit near Pt Lucie and go across FLA to panhandle and even to LA or skirt up coast skimming lots of FL and into GA, SC. It's very informative, not just carribean. Son in Parrish, FL is now watching.
The spaghetti models are pretty tight for the next day or so, then go whacky when this thing approaches the Florida coast. Going to have to keep an eye on this one for a couple of more days!
This is the latest from that Levi at tropicaltidbits...............
Ridge over NC (orange) builds as Dorian approaches, then weakens. A slower Dorian wouldn't get as far west before turning north into the weakness. There's even a glimmer of hope for an offshore track. But consensus is central FL landfall.
Naples, Marco Island area here......went through Wilma and Irma(only just got fixing the house) and wondering like everyone what to do......Not the best time to show this but this site you can punch in where you live and play around with wind speed, projected paths, and a whole bunch of things including seeing where it might be on Monday and Tuesday......
bran--the latest track brought the d*mn thing to within about 10 miles of our house, as either a cat 1 or a cat 2, so that's about all I need to know for now..
Keeps changing Carol........my area keeps talking about a cat 4(where does it say a cat 1 or two?) with the European forecast usually more accurate than the American one which shows further South. But try not to worry about this. They cannot possibly pinpoint 10 miles from you 4 days out!
bran--we're quite a bit inland, so it will be lesser here than at the coast. I know everything may well change in 4 days, but just saying that currently it's the worst case scenario for us, so we are trying to prepare for that..
Pressure dropping which is not a good sign. Down to 986 mb. Cousins in Ft. Pierce and Port St. Lucie could be heading to Atlanta for an extended Labor Day weekend. Well, this is the season so no surprises here.
Another central Florida resident here. Just received an email from VRBO telling me that there are huge discounts still available for Labor Day weekend beach rentals in Florida!
11 AM is REALLY different than before. Almost at West Palm and going straight up the coast of Florida, almost.. Wow. Good for us, but REALLY bad for Florida...
Appears that Dorian will not score a direct hit on Florida. Most recent model has it staying off the coast and heading north. Central Florida will be spared.
The direct hit seems to be around Charleston SC. Hopefully it will continue to curve out to sea.
Just got finished breaking in our new generator. Current track as of 11am has it off shore and just some tropical winds for us inland.
HOWEVER, it is just not that simple either. We have had major rains the last 30 days. Some areas are under water just from the rains. So more rain and almost any kind of wind -- means down trees across power lines. So power may be our problem more than anything. Our house and water is not a problem, and new roof from Irma is now not a problem. But power can be a problem, as we have had some outages just from the rains/thunderstorms the last 30 days. Not talking blips (those have been more than I can count - that is why we have battery backup on our tv's and satellite connection), but have had several hours of outages over the last thirty days.
As a result we are expecting probably a day or two of no power at the house and are preparing for that now.
Grand Bahamas are going to get slammed. Hopefully they have been boarding up the last few days. They will probably be without power and water for weeks, as I suspect it might be a cat 5 by then. Next report from NCH is at 5pm and they were seeing cat 5 winds at 2pm today but not enough to call it officially as a cat 5.
BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
Unbelieveable conditions in the Bahamas.. With 180 mph winds and the latest tracks coming closer to Florida, not feeling as good today as yesterday...…… Thoughts are with those in the Bahamas.
OMG !! And we thought SXM was destroyed. There is not a square foot of land un touched on both islands, How will they ever recover? I read where one man lost everything, even his wife. How sad.
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