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Scary one #263232
08/30/2021 08:26 AM
08/30/2021 08:26 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 181
Virgin Gorda, BVI
V
VirginGordaResident Offline OP
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VirginGordaResident  Offline OP
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Virgin Gorda, BVI
A big scary one brewing off the coast of Africa right now. Definitely worth keeping an eye on...

Attached Files Screen Shot 2021-08-30 at 8.24.16 AM.png
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Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263240
08/30/2021 10:42 AM
08/30/2021 10:42 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,196
S
sxmmartini Offline
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sxmmartini  Offline
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Posts: 7,196
A poll taken shows most bet it will be named Larry on September 3rd.

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263247
08/30/2021 02:05 PM
08/30/2021 02:05 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Manpot  Online Crying
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
This one is making me nervous..

Re: Scary one [Re: Manpot] #263248
08/30/2021 04:25 PM
08/30/2021 04:25 PM
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 92
Germany, Bergkamen
B
bigbone Offline
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bigbone  Offline
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Germany, Bergkamen
Maybe dangerous

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263253
08/30/2021 08:24 PM
08/30/2021 08:24 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 233
Va Beach
Kmon Offline
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Kmon  Offline
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Va Beach
This is a tweet from renowned weatherman Joe Bastardi 6 hrs ago. Hope he is right!

"Kate another storm that will stay far away A MAJOR Atlantic hurricane will develop next week and stay out at sea."

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263254
08/30/2021 09:58 PM
08/30/2021 09:58 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,225
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263255
08/30/2021 11:04 PM
08/30/2021 11:04 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,225
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Forecaster Carette----
quote
ANALYSIS
What bears watching is how much the disturbance develops and strengthens in the coming days. The stronger it becomes in the next five to seven days, the more likely it will be pulled northward and into the open Atlantic. On the other hand, if we see a disturbance that takes its time to develop, it becomes more likely that it will miss the weakness in the high-pressure ridge and track westward instead.
This tropical wave looks quite large in overall size and larger disturbances sometimes take a lot longer to organize and develop than smaller ones do. It is very possible that the forecast models are developing this disturbance too quickly, and in the end, we may see much slower development, which could steer the system a lot further west when compared to the model’s suggested track.
It is not a given that this system will end up curving into the open Atlantic and therefore should be closely watched over the next few days. Two areas to pay particularly close attention to: first is the far northern Leeward Islands for late this weekend into early next week; second is Bermuda where this disturbance needs to be watched for the middle and end of next week.

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263257
08/31/2021 07:17 AM
08/31/2021 07:17 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,196
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sxmmartini Offline
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Reminds me of Hurricane Irma when all the models had it recurve and go above the islands.

Attached Files 5476860A-15BE-4643-9A9A-23CDB50BA856.png
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263259
08/31/2021 08:46 AM
08/31/2021 08:46 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 181
Virgin Gorda, BVI
V
VirginGordaResident Offline OP
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VirginGordaResident  Offline OP
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Virgin Gorda, BVI
Great insight above from both. Here is what some current spaghetti models are showing from Mike's Weather Page... Let's hope it stays that way!

Attached Files Screen Shot 2021-08-31 at 8.41.23 AM.png
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263261
08/31/2021 08:51 AM
08/31/2021 08:51 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,109
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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I like Mike! Mike for president!

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263276
08/31/2021 03:34 PM
08/31/2021 03:34 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 181
Virgin Gorda, BVI
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VirginGordaResident Offline OP
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Virgin Gorda, BVI
Seems to be trending to head North out to the Atlantic but definitely still keeping an eye on this one.

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263280
08/31/2021 05:38 PM
08/31/2021 05:38 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Manpot  Online Crying
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Surf's up Apple Bay, CGB and Josiahs'..start waxing!

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263284
08/31/2021 08:37 PM
08/31/2021 08:37 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,370
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Central Florida!
As of now, it's TD 12 and supposedly going out to sea.. Hopefully.


Carol Hill
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263290
09/01/2021 10:51 AM
09/01/2021 10:51 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Manpot  Online Crying
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Good morning tropical storm Larry..now trending a little more west and less north. Lets hope it starts its northward curve and then wish the best for Bermuda!

Last edited by Manpot; 09/01/2021 10:51 AM.
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263312
09/02/2021 04:58 AM
09/02/2021 04:58 AM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,225
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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Thursday 5am forecast LARRY ---- NHC

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Re: Scary one [Re: LocalSailor] #263317
09/02/2021 09:14 AM
09/02/2021 09:14 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,370
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Central Florida!
Position and track definitely looks promising for the BVI..


Carol Hill
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263318
09/02/2021 12:36 PM
09/02/2021 12:36 PM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,147
road town
sleepychef Offline
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yes, but Bermuda might be in trouble

Re: Scary one [Re: sleepychef] #263319
09/02/2021 01:17 PM
09/02/2021 01:17 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,370
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Yes, hopefully it will curve way north..

...now there is another one, just coming off Africa!! duh

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 09/02/2021 01:18 PM.

Carol Hill
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263321
09/02/2021 02:18 PM
09/02/2021 02:18 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Manpot  Online Crying
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
The longer Larry keeps heading West before starting to head North the worse it gets for us and surrounding islands.Hoping to see that North curve start soon.

Re: Scary one [Re: Manpot] #263322
09/02/2021 03:17 PM
09/02/2021 03:17 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 76,370
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Mal--are you seeing ANY models that bring it anywhere close to the BVI, as I am not.


Carol Hill
Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263323
09/02/2021 03:40 PM
09/02/2021 03:40 PM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,479
An island state of mind
tradewinds Online content
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An island state of mind
The EURO model has it curving north and going east of Bermuda.

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263345
09/03/2021 01:43 PM
09/03/2021 01:43 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Larry seems to have started its North Western track which should spare us..but the National Hurricane Center graph has Bermuda right in its projected path

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263347
09/03/2021 02:02 PM
09/03/2021 02:02 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 181
Virgin Gorda, BVI
V
VirginGordaResident Offline OP
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VirginGordaResident  Offline OP
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Virgin Gorda, BVI
Let's hope it starts to curve east back out into the middle of the Atlantic and doesn't hit!!

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263378
09/04/2021 12:35 PM
09/04/2021 12:35 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,388
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying
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Manpot  Online Crying
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Larry is turning into one nasty ,powerful storm. After the last debacle in New York you have to wonder where this one will end up..after, hopefully, sparing Bermuda its full brunt. It certainly looks, right now, as though we have all dodged a powerful bullet.

Re: Scary one [Re: VirginGordaResident] #263379
09/04/2021 12:48 PM
09/04/2021 12:48 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,092
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And the good news is that a major hurricane like this one sucks up a lot of energy so that subsequent storms will hopefully have less "food". But I'm sure that surfers up and down the island chain are looking forward to some major swells on any west east coast stretches.

Last edited by Zanshin; 09/04/2021 12:49 PM.

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