Soon to be TS Tammy could affect the NE Caribbean this time next weekend. Hope it goes north before reaching the islands. The forecast intensity is here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_intensity_latest.png

I'm counting on Tammy to guarantee me a bumper lime crop.

Tammy needs to take a trip up North - I don’t need her to screw up my upcoming travel plans. 🙄

The forecast intensity has dropped significantly since yesterday. Good news indeed!

Lower intensity is good - bit weaker go west, correct? Hope it takes that N turn. I looked at long range forecast as we hope to be there the 24th and it looks wet through the 29th. 😟

Latest update expects a tropical storm to be named today or tonight. BVI looks to be in the middle of the cone.

Let's hope she stays east/north!!

Looking to be a rainy weekend regardless

Tammy is now a tropical storm.

Cone doesn’t look promising. Hoping for minimal impacts.

Looks like lots of rain and no damaging winds, which is most residents want! Good Luck!!

Hurricane hunters have found Tammy to be stronger than expected. Likely to become a hurricane soon. Way too close for comfort - I am expecting hurricane watches to be issued today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/120713.shtml?cone#contents

So far, windguru isn't showing major winds over the weekend. We just did an SXM trip this past Sept right as Lee (I think) was passing. We'd watched the NHC/NOAA maps and it scared the crap out of us as we were packing. The owner of the villa sent us a windguru link showing they weren't expecting much except the lighter, shifting winds and it was correct. That said, watching even their map, you're right, it's way to close for comfort. Slight shift and everything changes.

https://www.windguru.cz/map/?lat=18.08&lon=-63.02&zoom=9

Ligot - intensity just increased again and she is still tracking W. I would not trust Windguru at this point. Our base ops have enacted hurricane protocol.

wayyyyyyy to close for comfort.

STAY EAST I SAY!

Yes, the forecast now says minimal hurricane for the northern islands

Storm Carib says the following with regard to Tortola:

"Results for Tortola (18.45N, 64.53W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 62.8W or about 119.5 miles (192.3 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 60 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Saturday, October 21 at 11:00PM AST)."

Stay safe out there, people!

Anyone hauling their boats out for Tammy? I have a 15' RIB I keep at Leverick Bay and debating if I should keep it in or haul

Both of our Whalers are still on trailers. One has a more protected finger pier in a marina, so I would leave that one in. The other would be on a more exposed pier with a stern mooring. That one we would pull. Our boat guy removes the covers if wind is expected.

This mornings report looks like maybe a clean miss but some pretty goofy wind for 3-4 days. Hope the normal pattern returns for November.....

Officially decided to keep my boat in the water!!! ***fingers crossed***

Results from Storm Carib this morning.

Results for Tortola (18.45N, 64.53W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 62.7W or about 126.7 miles (203.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 46 hours and 24 minutes from now (Sunday, October 22 at 7:30AM AST).

When we were leaving yesterday am, the Navigare base staff said they were getting ready to recall all of their charter boats back to the base. Looks like it may have been a bit early to make that call if they followed through.

I'm still seeing Moorings and DYC boats out on the webcams.

Tammy is now a hurricane. Stay safe, everyone!

Changes in model guidance with track shifting a bit West. BVI is now under a tropical storm watch.

Moorings has recalled all charters back to base.

It can get very rough at the Leverick Bay docks. I would not keep it at the docks but would put it on a mooring.

Tammy is now moving away, thank goodness. Hopefully the BVI got some rain for the cisterns..

Glad its moving away from BVI! Unfortunately we (Im crew on Le Reve wit Dirk and Sandy) are pinned in to Bermuda. We were supposed to hopefully make a break for STT on Monday am but Tammy is going to park her butt right in the path for what looks like almost a week and may actually creep up to Bermuda. (the models are too far out)

worse places to be stuck but definitely a long wait for a window

My fruit trees got very little rain. Hopefully our cistern is still full. We're six weeks out and already packing.

Nothing burger