TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums British Virgin Islands Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update

Did Virgin Gorda get any rain at all???

Carol, the forecasts have been more than "bad"... I think they've been irresponsible. People take those reports as gospel and it's the ones who haven't been told to be on the alert that really worry me.

I mean, "what if" that darned storm just keeps tracking west? It's already missed two of the "forecasted" turning points, who's to say it won't just keep going on it's slow west north west track? Jamaica is not even on "storm watch" status! What about the southern coast of Haiti? By the way, Dominica wasn't on storm watch status either.

I can't believe that the governor of Florida declared a state of emergency, while folks in Jamaica (up until about three hours ago) were still going about their normal routine, happily thinking they had nothing to worry about. [color:"red"]FINALLY[/color], the meteorological service in Jamaica decided to issue a severe weather alert. Good call fellas. Duuuuh!

We know it's not the wind associated with this storm that is so darned dangerous. Look where the bulk of the storm is located. It's nowhere near the Dominican Republic! It's out over the water ... and where does it appear to be heading?

The forecasters keep concentrating on that itty bitty (almost imperceptible) "eye" or center of rotation as they call it, when (in my humble opinion) they should be focusing on the bit that could potentially cause more major flooding, death and destruction, just as it did in Dominica!

If I lived in Jamaica, I would be making plans to head for high ground in about 24 to 30 hours time, if that thing doesn't make an abrupt northerly turn or get cut off at the knees by wind shear. Jamaica and the southern coast of Haiti could be in really serious trouble. Are they ready for it? Even if wind sheer beats Erika up a bit, there's still a good chance it will pass through just because of it's size.

The next 6 to 12 hours will be the most critical point in my opinion. The leading edge of the storm is just about to run into that wind shear in maybe 2 to 3 hours. If that doesn't do the trick, they had better start organizing themselves.

I find this whole situation truly amazing. Erika is not a storm to take lightly.

Some of the new spaghetti models are showing it going over the southside of DR and Haiti, so the mountains might not be an issue. Which would mean that it probably would not weaken as thought. But then it gets interesting.

Most of the models are showing it going over Cuba in one fashion or another and then heading to Florida gulf coast side. Anywhere from Naples to Tampa. A few of the models have it going along the south side of Cuba but not over Jamaica and then into the gulf. Got to keep an eye on it for the next 24 hours and see what Erika does.

Weather forecasting is the only job that you can be wrong at 80% of the time and still keep your job. The NWS has been hyping the possibility of a "Godzilla El Nino" this year for the Western USA. It would be great to get the much needed water, but these are the same people that predict X tropical storms developing into Y hurricanes that will make Z landfalls in the USA. They haven't been even close for as long as I can remember. Folks, they just don't know! Over 36 hours out, and the predictions totally fall apart. My $0.02 worth.

Happily, the bottom half of the storm was killed off by that big wind shear from the east. It basically stopped it dead in it's track. Unfortunately, the northern half of the storm managed to sneak around it.

What happens now seems to be anyone's guess. I don't trust any of the models. it seems to be dipping south west, and that's not a good thing. Hopefully it will lose steam soon.

The one thing I don't get is they talk about the big high pressure area that pushed the storm south. Highs don't form overnight so you would have thought it would have showed up in some of the models.
G

A disorganized storm (with little or no perceptible center of rotation) is much more fluid than a hurricane and far more susceptible to all the localized variables that generally do not impact the momentum and track of a hurricane.

The experts completely ignored the large wind shear that was visible even to me! That wind shear extended a long way out from the northern tip of Columbia, just west of Aruba. The shear acted like a brick wall to the lower half of the storm yesterday afternoon. BUT, the northern half of the storm moved inland at the Dominican Republic, and managed to escape the effects of the shear.

They need to stop using computer software developed specifically for hurricane behavior when dealing with a disorganized tropical storm. They are two different animals that behave quite differently. Relatively minor, localized influences have far greater effects on a tropical storm than they do on hurricanes.

What amazes me is that as of the 5:00 am report, they continue to show their models with the storm completely missing Jamaica. Really? http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

This is the only public advisory I could find for Jamaica http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/...-tropical-storm

I think the NHC is playing fast and loose with people’s lives. In my opinion, Jamaica should have been put on storm watch yesterday if not the day before. I also think the Cayman Islands should be watching this storm closely too. Even if it turns out their models are correct, it is better to err on the side of safety than to have a repeat of what happened in Dominica where the people were completely unprepared for what they got.

I am not saying that anything would have been different in Dominica if a storm warning had been in place, but who knows, maybe one less life would have been lost ... maybe more. We will never know.

Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 291330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Thank God!

There were two more (small) wind shears off the southeast coast of Jamaica that formed sometime around 5:00 this morning. I didn't think they were big enough to stop the storm but apparently I was wrong. it is really interesting to watch it collapse on itself!

Hopefully some of the islands and Florida will at least get some much needed rain in reasonable quantities.

Florida is probably one of 3 states that does not need rain. On the other hand it would be really nice is some would trickle up to NC!
G

We are certainly fine here on rain in Central Florida, although I guess around Miami, they do need rain.

Another one already on its way off Africa..

July and early August were insane for rain here in Tampa. Never seen anything like it. Hopefully some of the areas that need it (like Miami) get it instead.