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Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
#66128
08/26/2015 02:52 PM
08/26/2015 02:52 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,862 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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OP
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Posts: 82,862
Central Florida!
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#66130
08/26/2015 02:57 PM
08/26/2015 02:57 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,953 St. John, USVI
RickG
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,953
St. John, USVI
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The USVI government announced they are closed tomorrow. Lots of VITEMA messages coming in.
Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes, 2003 Beneteau 423 Grenada
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#66134
08/26/2015 05:24 PM
08/26/2015 05:24 PM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,267 Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,267
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
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STT airport will close at 9AM thurs. Hopefully I will get there on Friday and go to Virgin Gorda via ferry. USVI ports are to open 12 noon on Friday <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />
tpcook
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Manpot]
#66136
08/26/2015 05:34 PM
08/26/2015 05:34 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,198 Cape Coral Florida (Texas tran...
stoneyusaf
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,198
Cape Coral Florida (Texas tran...
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Manpot said:Anyone stuck let us know..CRC is available to TTOLers for just expenses to get you out of the storm.. crc@vom.com <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> VERY GENEROUS!!
https://www.tickerfactory.com/ezt/d/4;10765;405/st/20220331/e/USVI+and+BVI/dt/0/k/05ce/event.png
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#66140
08/27/2015 09:52 AM
08/27/2015 09:52 AM
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826 Tortola, BVI
LianeLeTendre
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826
Tortola, BVI
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Hi Carol,
Not sure about elsewhere in the BVI, but I kind of doubt Tortola will see that amount of rain. I'm still not hobbled by this one. A tad stiff, but that's it.
We sure could use a good rain ... though 3 to 5 inches would be a bit much. I'l take 1 to 2 inches please. My garden really needs a good soaking and so does our cistern. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />
<Added> Having said that, Dominica got hammered with more than 8 inches of rain within a 6 hour period! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" /> .. they are dealing with some really serious damage from flooding.
I just switched on the Weather channel and they said the storm has turned south a bit. That could explain why my knee hasn't kicked up ... yet.
Last edited by LianeLeTendre; 08/27/2015 10:45 AM.
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: LianeLeTendre]
#66141
08/27/2015 10:09 AM
08/27/2015 10:09 AM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,198 Cape Coral Florida (Texas tran...
stoneyusaf
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,198
Cape Coral Florida (Texas tran...
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Kind of eerie looking at the various webcams (cooper, leverick, soggy, etc.) and seeing the lack of action and boats...Soggy Dollar furniture turned upside-down.
https://www.tickerfactory.com/ezt/d/4;10765;405/st/20220331/e/USVI+and+BVI/dt/0/k/05ce/event.png
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: stoneyusaf]
#66142
08/27/2015 10:54 AM
08/27/2015 10:54 AM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 430 South Carolina
Riverfrontbrewer
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 430
South Carolina
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stoneyusaf said: Kind of eerie looking at the various webcams (cooper, leverick, soggy, etc.) and seeing the lack of action and boats...Soggy Dollar furniture turned upside-down. I was just looking at that too Jim.....did they call all the charter boats back? Good luck to all in the vicinity.
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Riverfrontbrewer]
#66143
08/27/2015 11:03 AM
08/27/2015 11:03 AM
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Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028 Leverick Bay
NickR
Traveler
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Traveler
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Posts: 2,028
Leverick Bay
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All charter boats have returned to base.
Nick Willis "Mine Host" Leverick Bay Resort & Marina
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: tradewinds]
#66147
08/27/2015 12:57 PM
08/27/2015 12:57 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,862 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,862
Central Florida!
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Sure sounds like it, several deaths reported. I wonder if they had been in a drought previously or not, as had most of the Caribbean..
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#66151
08/27/2015 09:04 PM
08/27/2015 09:04 PM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,267 Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,267
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
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Erika has moved south and will be about 75-100 miles from BVI. Northeast and southeast quadrants will have some rain and wind. Max winds in the center 45MPH, so maybe 30 MPH in the BVI. Delta Airlines ran a complete schedule into STT on the 27th (today) and I am using them to fly to STT on the 28th. AA did not.
I don't suspect that BVI will get a lot of rain. Some heavy bands just enough to fill some cisterns. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/circle.gif" alt="" />
tpcook
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: JasonHelmbrecht]
#66153
08/28/2015 05:49 AM
08/28/2015 05:49 AM
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826 Tortola, BVI
LianeLeTendre
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826
Tortola, BVI
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Once again, the storm tracks have been pretty inaccurate thus far. Erika was pretty much a non event for my neck of the woods (on Tortola's West End) and it continues to track west north west rather than north ... as all the models predicted.
We had sustained winds of between 40 to 50 mph for about an hour and a half after I shut down my computer last night, then it began to weaken. The wind continues right now which is (I imagine) the tail end of the outer storm bands with intermittent gusts of about 25 to 35 mph.
Kudos to the BVI Electricity Corporation for keeping the power on throughout. We have had no more power outages, only a few dips.
I really don't understand what all the models are based on, but there seems to be a major flaw in the prognostication system. I don't even think Puerto Rico is going to experience much more than what we did, though they may get more rain than us.
I keep waiting for Erika to make that sudden turn to the north the models all show, but it simply hasn't happened yet. At this point, based on the storm's actual track rather than the computer generated models, I am a "little" more concerned for Haiti, (Jamaica and the Cayman Islands which aren't even in the storm warning zone) than I am for Puerto Rico. That's assuming the storm doesn't Peter out before it reaches them, as there seems to be a large wind sheer coming from the east that could put an end to Erika or at least slow her down a lot ... but what do I know.
It seems that unless there is an actual hurricane, the "experts" don't seem to be able to accurately predict storm behaviour or direction very accurately. Since Erika has proven to be a very dangerous and destructive storm in regards to water volumes ... that is of great concern and points to a pretty big flaw in the system.
Fingers crossed that nobody else will have to endure what Dominica did and that this thing won't cause any more loss of life or major damage.
Good luck to all in her path!
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: LianeLeTendre]
#66154
08/28/2015 07:46 AM
08/28/2015 07:46 AM
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720 Massachusetts
maytrix
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720
Massachusetts
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I think the problem is that the models are all over the place. some have it going up the east coast of Florida and others have it going onto the gulf.
Matt
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: sleepychef]
#66158
08/28/2015 08:55 AM
08/28/2015 08:55 AM
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Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 17
TropicalBlend
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 17
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Here in Fajardo, P.R., we didn't get much of the storm, as it stayed well south of us. I stayed up until 2 last night, and never saw a gust over 40. It's raining quite hard now, with wind gusts up to 30. The satellite imagery says we are out of the storm now, but my eyes and ears tell me something different.
No model correctly predicted the due west shift yesterday. There is a chance that the high peaks of Hispaniola may beak up the storm entirely, sparing The Bahamas and Florida. But right now it is still on a due south heading. At least eastern P.R. is getting a good soaking this morning.
Living life at seven knots on the M/V Tropical Blend
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: TropicalBlend]
#66159
08/28/2015 09:44 AM
08/28/2015 09:44 AM
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347 USVI
LocalSailor
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
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Looks like the worst winds were 10pm-2am - and not much over 40 mph sustained. This is the wind site I use on a daily basis in Pillsbury Sound but very close to and representative of Drakes Passage http://windalert.com/spot/48694
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Lew]
#66162
08/28/2015 10:53 AM
08/28/2015 10:53 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,953 St. John, USVI
RickG
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,953
St. John, USVI
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Last I heard from St. John, two boats sunk and two boats on the rocks in Coral Bay Harbor. Another abandoned boat on the rocks in Chocolate Hole. Friends who live above both said that gusting wind was the biggest impact. Friends ashore suffered leaves in the pool and one flower pot tipped over.
Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes, 2003 Beneteau 423 Grenada
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: Lew]
#66163
08/28/2015 11:14 AM
08/28/2015 11:14 AM
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,493 VIRGINIA
BEERMAN
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Traveler
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,493
VIRGINIA
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Lew said: Was there enough rain to fill the cisterns and get rid of some of the brown? I just emailed someone on STJ, they said "Nope, nothing"
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: maytrix]
#66164
08/28/2015 11:22 AM
08/28/2015 11:22 AM
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826 Tortola, BVI
LianeLeTendre
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 826
Tortola, BVI
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I think the problem is that the models are all over the place. That's an understatement! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" /> I think I will pay more attention to my knee rather than concern myself with the computer forecasts in future. For both Danny and Erika, it was telling me it's nothing to worry about. Unfortunately, my head was telling me to listen to the experts. They sound so darned authoritative! So far so good. Hopefully, the wind sheer coming out of the east will stop it in its tracks or weaken it to the point that all it will do is share some of that wet stuff where it is needed. Fortunately/unfortunately, we didn't get much. Dominica certainly got more than any of us would ever want. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Sad.gif" alt="" /> I'm still a little worried about Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman's. If that thing doesn't turn (like now) they could be in for it if the wind sheer doesn't knock the stuffings out of it.
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: LianeLeTendre]
#66165
08/28/2015 12:46 PM
08/28/2015 12:46 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,862 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
OP
Traveler
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OP
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Posts: 82,862
Central Florida!
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Yes, the forecasting of both of these storms has just been really bad. We shall see where it goes from here, and the future forecast is just all over the place, as to where it will end up and at what intensity. Come on NHC, you have to do a better job than this!!
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update
[Re: irina]
#66167
08/28/2015 02:33 PM
08/28/2015 02:33 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,862 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Posts: 82,862
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Yeah, we were just talking about making sure we pick up stuff that could fly around. I don't get how it will get over those mountains either.. I have not been impressed with the NHC on this one at all! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Mad.gif" alt="" />
Carol Hill
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