I don't think this is that complicated, honestly. If there are no flights or there is no place to stay, you can't go. There is no decision to be made. If there is widespread lawlessness or meaningful food shortages, then it isn't smart to go. If there is no way to get around, then it probably doesn't make sense to go, unless you want to stay at one place. But what about debris piled everywhere? That will be the case for several years. What about no trees? What about there are small restaurants open, but none of the upscale places are open? Are these reasons to stay away? For me, they won't be, if I know that I have a place to stay, the beaches are open, and the locals will grill some snapper and sell it to me.

At the risk of repeating myself, and speaking broadly and over a long time frame, I think St Martin's problem where tourism is concerned isn't going to be that there is too much, too soon. Its problem is going to be the opposite. These people didn't just have their houses destroyed. They lost their jobs. And, apart from construction work, tourism will be the only way they can get them back.