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Re: BVI airways
[Re: Guineaman]
#110402
10/25/2016 04:29 PM
10/25/2016 04:29 PM
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,557 Toronto, Ontario
gordaguy2
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The airline will be an unmitigated disaster for everyone involved - you cannot run an airline at a profit doing what they plan to do. Of course, if the government gives them 7 million in equity they can run it until the money runs out - good salaries for a few people for a limited amount of time. someone will get burned in the end.
GordaGuy2
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: Breeze]
#110406
10/25/2016 07:40 PM
10/25/2016 07:40 PM
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,711 Memphis, BVI, CT
RatmansWife
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Hillside, enjoyed that, thanks.
There just aren't many positives to this airline. No interline agreements, so you will likely pay twice for your luggage. Can't use or earn miles. And you still have to change flights, unless you're from Miami. This will be $7 million down the drain and we, the BVI taxpayers, will be asked to pay the freight.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110409
10/26/2016 09:30 AM
10/26/2016 09:30 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,040 Charlotte, NC
NCSailor
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StormJib said: "My guess and I'm often wrong is that it doesn't get started or last more than months and some make out profitably and The BVI loses the millions."
While I do not like the strategy here. The subsidy agreement should keep whatever starts flying, flying for some time. The agreement does not simply hand the new operator a single one time bundle of cash. There is start up cash and then cash paying for the ongoing operation for at least the first three years. From there the BVI could keep the subsidy going(many small markets do that), change the subsidy, pick a new partner(s) to subsidize, or walk away. The four engine BAe 146 has a long solid record of flying. There is no reason why the flights should not get off the ground. The planes are expensive to fly per passenger mile but they are quiet. In the short term that should reduce the noise and number of flights into EIS. The only long term sustainable fix is a very visitor friendly ferry service direct for STT plus a runway at EIS that will support the lower cost per passenger mile jets the real airlines are moving towards. EIS needs to change to gain +/- once a day flights with Jet Blue and AA at least. STT is out of space and capacity. STT cannot be the single ingress and egress point. SJU will not be cost or time effective for the 21st century travelers. STT is not out of space and capacity for more flights. The terminal is too small for the number of flights they have scheduled for the weekends but that is correctable with a terminal expansion.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: NCSailor]
#110410
10/26/2016 09:41 AM
10/26/2016 09:41 AM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,155 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
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7 million dollars will not get the first flight off the ground. I assume they have additional investor funding. Just the costs involved for training 30 pilots to man two aircraft will exceed 2 million dollars. Payroll for those pilots if they are paid half the industry standard will be close to 3 million a month. That's before you pay any other employees. You will need those pilots on the property for training 60 to 90 days before the first flight. Once you have crew trained you will be required to fly proving flights by the FAA. To get this airline up and running safely with two airframes I would consider 50 to 60 million in capital a bare minimum.
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 10/26/2016 09:42 AM.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: NCSailor]
#110411
10/26/2016 09:52 AM
10/26/2016 09:52 AM
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Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,999 Macon, Georgia
GlennA
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$7 million would have been a 40% equity in a fleet of 6 modern 100 passenger fast cat ferries. At the current passenger load and fares the outside debt would be paid off and equity paid back to the government in less than 6 years.
If the existing ferry services formed a co-operative: Would require no operating subsidies. Would reduce maintenance cost and out of service hours. Would allow close coordination between companies to insure schedules were strictly maintained. A revenue scheme which pays a base for each run plus a load factor would end cancellations due to low demand. A centeralized reservation system would eliminate customer confusion and insure passage on the next available run. A reliable schedule would increase customer confidence and satisfaction.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. - Mark Twain
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110414
10/26/2016 10:33 AM
10/26/2016 10:33 AM
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Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,392 Maryland
Kirk
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StormJib said: Right or wrong? The first phase is one single plane, flying three days a week between MIA and EIS. Three round trips a week on an 86 passenger plane will be +/- 13,000 total passengers a year of the 400,000 BVI visitors per year that travel by air to the BVI. The pilots are already hired. More than $2.4 million of the $7 million is already transferred to Jerry Willoughby and the airline. There is no reason the airline cannot get off the ground and fly for a few years. The plans are actually very realistic. Whether the company will be sustainable past the first aircraft and three years remains to be seen.
Make no mistake. My preference has always been daily subsidized service with one or more of the real players in the industry. Sadly today no US major is flying planes capable of making the route between the Northeast US and EIS.
Watch for the majority of the MIA to EIS passengers to be business travelers with a few parrot heads and pirates packing sunglasses and flip flops. One single plane...what happens if it breaks down/can't fly?
Kirk in Maryland
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110415
10/26/2016 10:40 AM
10/26/2016 10:40 AM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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There is simply no interest between the leaders on St. Thomas and Tortola towards co-operation; much less a visitor friendly ferry alternative. Certainly a ferry transportation hub at STT run like the ferries in Seattle or Sydney would be a BIG plus for the entire region. A Denmark like zero touch, zero hassle C&I approach for anyone getting off and an airplane would be a major plus. Fly into Copenhagen and the walk from your plane, to baggage claim, to the exit is completely uninterrupted.
So the leaders on Tortola are moving in these directions.
Making the BVI accessible to the rest of the world via large, long-mile aircraft, within the next four years.
While awaiting the runway expansion that will accommodate the larger commercial airlines, BVI Airways, operating a smaller jet that can utilize the current runway, will begin direct flights to Miami.
Fletch Air, a subsidiary of VLM Airlines, will be creating a service to the islands down south for European visitors. Ahhhh maybe scratch that... VLM went bankrupt and shut down in June.
Again the long list of the ferry problems start with the politics on St. Thomas and ends with the family rivalries that are in the ferry and transportation businesses today. Tortola is either not masterful enough to overcome those hurdles or maybe the powers that be simply do not want an economically joined virgin islands region.
Has anyone ever done the math on the number of locals on both islands employed by and around the ferries and boats that go back and forth each day.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110416
10/26/2016 10:56 AM
10/26/2016 10:56 AM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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One single plane...what happens if it breaks down/can't fly? The same problem every airline and passenger has. The modern airline industry does not keep spare planes on standby. All the aircraft are booked; all the time. When someone takes AA to St. Lucia or STT. There is no spare AA jet anywhere in the Carribean on standby to handle a hull that suddenly is unavailable. Yes, with one aircraft the risk may look greater depending on the treaties BVI Air can get signed. With three day a week service the bigger issue may be the passengers who miss their flight. That would also be true for any passenger who missed on of the Saturday only flights many of the majors offer to the Carribean. That is one point the leaders on Tortola have heard over and over from their consultants. The only solution is a runway with at least one major US carrier taking off each day to a mainland hub.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110417
10/26/2016 12:03 PM
10/26/2016 12:03 PM
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Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,392 Maryland
Kirk
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StormJib said:One single plane...what happens if it breaks down/can't fly? The same problem every airline and passenger has. The modern airline industry does not keep spare planes on standby. All the aircraft are booked; all the time. When someone takes AA to St. Lucia or STT. There is no spare AA jet anywhere in the Carribean on standby to handle a hull that suddenly is unavailable. Yes, with one aircraft the risk may look greater depending on the treaties BVI Air can get signed. With three day a week service the bigger issue may be the passengers who miss their flight. That would also be true for any passenger who missed on of the Saturday only flights many of the majors offer to the Carribean. That is one point the leaders on Tortola have heard over and over from their consultants. The only solution is a runway with at least one major US carrier taking off each day to a mainland hub. So if my 1:00 Cape Air plane breaks down, there's no other Cape Air plane that they'll stick me on until that one is fixed? Somehow I know that's not true...but it would be on your one plane airline.
Kirk in Maryland
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110420
10/26/2016 07:38 PM
10/26/2016 07:38 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,219 JAX
jphart
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Not a "treatie" - it is an interline agreement.
Correct about SWA, they have never interlined. But the majors are limiting interline as well. DL and AA no longer cooperate.
JPH I spent my money on booze, broads, and boats...the rest I wasted.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#110422
10/26/2016 09:10 PM
10/26/2016 09:10 PM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,597 Cow Wreck Beach
wmangum
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GeorgeC1 said: Just the costs involved for training 30 pilots to man two aircraft will exceed 2 million dollars. Payroll for those pilots if they are paid half the industry standard will be close to 3 million a month. Huh? 3 million a month divided by 30 is 100,000/month. I find it hard to believe that the industry standard is 200,000/month (2.4 mil per year). Maybe you slipped a decimal place there?
Walker Mangum Cow Wreck Beach, Anegada
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: wmangum]
#110423
10/27/2016 08:22 AM
10/27/2016 08:22 AM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,155 GA/NC
GeorgeC1
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The standard in the US on this type of operation is probably about 150,000 for Captains and 100,000 for copilots. Then you have to add in the benefit package. If they pay much less then that the quality of what they hire would be very suspect. China is snapping up pilots at 200,000 to 350,000 a year with huge benefit packages. The small US feeder airlines that used to pay copilots 20,000 a year are now offering starting pay at 50 to 60K and they still can't fill their classes. 30 pilots is a high number for one airplane three days a week. It's my understanding they plan on adding another aircraft and additional flights. The normal staffing is about 13 pilots per aircraft and a few administrative and line check pilots. They will never survive if they utilize the aircraft only 3 days a week long term.
Last edited by GeorgeC1; 10/27/2016 08:26 AM.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#110424
10/27/2016 12:39 PM
10/27/2016 12:39 PM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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A typical passenger jet flies 2,000 hours a year or 5-6 hours per day. One round trip EIS to MIA each day would put the BVI Air plane in that range. BVI will be subsidized for at least the first three years. The aged aircraft model chosen is a very low capital cost or operating lease cost option. The subsidy will more than cover the annual aircraft capital cost. With a "free" plane the need for full utilization would be different than a US major with a newer more efficient highly capitalized piece of machinery. The plane operates with a two pilot crew. EIS to MIA is a base and back to base day for a pair of pilots. You could do that with 4 even 3 pilots. To succeed in the short term the largest issue once the planes are flying will be to fly the aircraft full with paying passengers.
Last edited by StormJib; 10/27/2016 12:54 PM.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110425
10/27/2016 01:07 PM
10/27/2016 01:07 PM
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720 Massachusetts
maytrix
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I just wonder who is going to take a chance with 1 flight a day? Unless the cost was substantially lower, seems like going via STT or SJU are still a much better more reliable option.
Matt
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: maytrix]
#110426
10/27/2016 01:49 PM
10/27/2016 01:49 PM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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maytrix said: I just wonder who is going to take a chance with 1 flight a day? Unless the cost was substantially lower, seems like going via STT or SJU are still a much better more reliable option. I suspect the majority of passengers on the MIA to EIS flight will be people flying from Tortola to do business in Miami and professionals flying from Miami to do business or provided services in the BVI. Some hospitality travelers will fill the seats between them. The seats on these planes will hold less than 1/4 or 1 percent of the total visitors to the BVI. Until there is direct jet service to the Northeast these flights will be meaningless to the general hospitality traveler.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: StormJib]
#110427
10/27/2016 01:59 PM
10/27/2016 01:59 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,601 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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I would bet that the majority of the travelers will be vacationers, IF, and it's a big IF, the flights are reasonably priced, they will be very popular with people seeking to avoid the ferry.
Carol Hill
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: Breeze]
#110429
10/27/2016 02:49 PM
10/27/2016 02:49 PM
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 5,720 Massachusetts
maytrix
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I'd agree with Carol - I think its far more likely price conscious vacationers might use it vs business travelers. A Business traveler can't worry about a flight being delayed and having to book on another airline last minute. They'd take the sure thing. While a person on vacation might be more flexible in their time for the right price.
Matt
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: maytrix]
#110431
10/27/2016 04:13 PM
10/27/2016 04:13 PM
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Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,999 Macon, Georgia
GlennA
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The way I see it, this whole thing is a big expensive ego trip. It appears to be set up as a private airline for locals. How can they possibly market it? With the 3 trips a week schedule it will be impossible to motivate many travelers to forego the flexability and reliability of extablished routes unless there are MAJOR cost savings.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. - Mark Twain
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: Guineaman]
#110436
11/02/2016 02:04 PM
11/02/2016 02:04 PM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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My apologies if this has been posted previously? This does touch very lightly some of the items brought forward in the past by the TTOL aviation experts. http://bvinews.com/new/bvi-airways-pilot-cites-challenge-promises-safety/"Bradley Goggin, who was hired recently as Director of Flight Operations at BVI Airways, said some major challenges have been faced in starting the non-stop flight between the British Virgin Islands (BVI) and the United States."
Last edited by StormJib; 11/02/2016 02:36 PM.
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Re: BVI airways
[Re: GeorgeC1]
#110438
11/03/2016 08:27 AM
11/03/2016 08:27 AM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
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GeorgeC1 said: He clearly has great qualifications as a pilot but is a odd choice to be the Chief Pilot for a startup airline. Normally you would hire someone who has extensive experience working with the FAA to certify a new airline. All his experience appears to be military. The flying crosses over without issues however the paperwork and regulatory aspects are completely different from the military. A CP who knows how to navigate the FAA bureaucracy can really speed things up. Would that be true for a one hull, one US route airline? Is assume, suspect, and guess there must be a consultant inside the blankets somewhere?
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