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Joined: Feb 2026
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Hey all,
Been researching this trip for almost a year now, can't wait to get down there. I have read a lot on the dangers of northern swells and looking at the forecasts for next week it's looking like I'll be dealing with them quite a bit. I'm trying to get a better sense of when I'm at risk. Forecasts are predicting 1.1m swells from the north to northeast. That sounds pretty benign to me, although maybe less comfortable on the ball overnight.
Is there a particular height that should be setting off alarm bells?
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Joined: Oct 2019
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Others here will offer their opinion, but it is not just the swell height that you should be concerned with. The swell direction, and the period are important too. The longer the period, the more energy the swell carries.
Depending on your crew and vessel (monohulls are more susceptible), a 4 ft swell at 14+ second period can be uncomfortable for many.....especially in Cane Garden Bay. Other places that are dangerous in north swells are the Baths and Cooper Island. Landing a dingy in White Bay (Jost) can be dangerous too because of the swell reflecting off of Tortola.
The veterans here, with much more experience than I, will add their valuable two-cents.
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Joined: Apr 2002
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A 1.1 meter swell won’t cause any real issues.
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Joined: Jan 2008
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I lived aboard in St. Martin for most of about 5 years.
Swell from Northeast is much less terrible than swell from northwest. You are likely picking up your boat at Anse Marcel marina, so the bay at Anse Marcel is beautiful and pretty protected. Lots of turtles and a great beach. You might spend a day - or two - there. If St. Martin is a clock, Anse Marcel is about midnight. If you go out of that bay and navigate anti-clockwise, you come to Grand Case at about 11 o'clock - Yyou'll be traveling with the swell behind you, much nicer than otherwise. LEAVING ANSE MARCEL BE AWARE OF THE SHOAL RUNNING OUT FROM THE WESTERN SHORE straight toward Anguilla. GIVE IT A WIDE BERTH. Grand Case is a wonderful place to visit If you tuck in well, intpo the southeast corner of the bay. You may choose to spend a couple of days there. Great beach, lively main drag at night, amazing dining both cheap and expensive. In a swell the dinghy dock may be a bit sporty. If you continue anti clockwise you come to Happy Bay, which will be exposed, but is a very beautiful day stop, you may end up with the beach to yourself or almost to yourself. The next bay is Friars, where you can tuck in tight to the north eastern shore and enjoy great swimming, and another amazing beach. After that, continuing anticlockwise, you come to Galisbay and Marigot Bay. You can tuck in at either of these as well, Galisbay at anchor, Marigot on a ball - get one up front near theferry port. You have to pay for the ball at the Gare Maritime just at the dinghy dock. It is possible to anchor in Marigot Bay, but in these conditions anchoring outside the mooring field may be uncomfortable.
If all else fails, take the boat into the lagoon from the French side. It's calm as can be.
In a northeast swell, you will not enjoy going to St. Barth's, it will be what we sailors call "shitty."
You are allowed to cross the border in your dinghy, but if you take the big boat across the border, you must check out of the French side and check into the Dutch side. Not worth it.
There is a facebook group Saint Martin/Sint Maarten Cruisers and boaters. I am an administrator. In the files section you can find a cruising guide I wrote a couple of years ago. Everything is more or less still current except check-in procedures.
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Working hard to be the best yacht bum I can be.
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Nice write-up, Ritchard, but he's chartering in the BVI.
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Joined: May 2002
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For those in the BVI's today Wed..the worst of the storm has passed and winds have calmed waaay down. The swell is big and there is off and on light rain but much better than yesterday and the night before ( blown in rainwater almost up to my bed in my master overlooking the sea).
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@zlehmann - the dangers of a north swell are related to the energy in the waves as they get into shallow water and start to break. The wave energy is a combination of both the wave height and the wave frequency. The longer the frequency, the more energy. Currently, Windguru BVI shows 12-14 second period, which is very long. That, coupled with an almost 2m north swell means that many places are going to be uncomfortable at best, and dangerous at worst. I've had to leave Cane Garden Bay in breaking waves (with surfers coming in while I was going out) in less than this... If you are on a mooring, the water there is deep enough to prevent bottoming out, but there's always a risk of breaking the mooring line (or popping out the anchor). Little danger if you are aboard. The BVI has protected anchorages from the north swell inside the Virgin Gorda north sound and also at Diamond Cay.
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1 member likes this:
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Joined: Nov 2016
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Reporting from today’s adventures in BVI related to the. Northerly swells. The open water has been very lumpy and bumpy, North swell warnings drove most boats into “safe” harbors. We got to the Bight this afternoon (Wednesday) and found every mooring ball taken-been here 8-9 times and never seen the Bight completely full. Great Barbie and little Harbor on Jost packed every night. All that strange in that our itinerary was completely ahead of the normal clockwise or counter clockwise itineraries. Bottom line, a heavy northern swell makes for an interesting adventure. Between the heavy swell and heavy winds, way more motoring and way less sailing.
Sailing is not a matter of life and death-it is more important than that
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Joined: Oct 2004
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Zanshin, I always think about your story of surfers on the break as you left Cane Garden Bay that one exciting North swell.
We had a challenging week January 2015 with north swell and screaming winds. Protected anchorages were packed and did not do much sailing. Blew out our wind instrument.
Cheers, RickG
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This conversation brings back many memories of exciting monohull sailing in January BVI waters with just two of us (husband and wife). Again, most important…always, always always know who in your party is the captain, and then always do as the captain requests/ orders. If you are worried, put your life jacket on… well..actually it should have been on …but that conversation is for a different thread.
Last edited by trueblue; 02/05/2026 02:08 PM.
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Thank you! This is exactly the kind of insight I was hoping for. I'm keeping a close eye on the weather myself. It looks like when I arrive it might be on the backside of the system moving by in the north. Fingers crossed!
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