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Hurricane Irma #139141
08/30/2017 07:38 AM
08/30/2017 07:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,136
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline OP
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warren460  Offline OP
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Ontario, Canada
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Hoping the track keeps it north of the islands.

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/31/2017 03:00 PM.

Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
BVI Sponsors
Re: New storm to watch [Re: warren460] #139142
08/30/2017 09:57 AM
08/30/2017 09:57 AM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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A quick look at the 7-10 day models shows in +/- 240 hours the extreme weather forecasters will be very busy with Carribean, West Coast, East Coast and Gulf of Mexico storms. Harvey is very disruptive for now. Once Harvey and the current East Coast storm is gone? The pictures should get a little clearer.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: warren460] #139143
08/30/2017 02:34 PM
08/30/2017 02:34 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Doesn't look good!


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139144
08/30/2017 02:39 PM
08/30/2017 02:39 PM
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 45
Charleston, SC
C
CHS_JDE Offline
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CHS_JDE  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 45
Charleston, SC
She'll be arriving about the same time we are scheduled to. Never wished for a tail wind so much!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: CHS_JDE] #139145
08/30/2017 02:53 PM
08/30/2017 02:53 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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Here is the latest 9 day model. The path shifted way south since this AM. For those that do not believe in long range computer forecasting the BVI should be fine. If this is correct the weather will not be good near the water...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f216.php

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139146
08/31/2017 06:12 AM
08/31/2017 06:12 AM
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 45
Charleston, SC
C
CHS_JDE Offline
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CHS_JDE  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2017
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Charleston, SC
Looks like she picked up a little speed. Still gonna plow right through the islands.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: CHS_JDE] #139147
08/31/2017 08:07 AM
08/31/2017 08:07 AM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,136
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline OP
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warren460  Offline OP
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Posts: 2,136
Ontario, Canada
From spaghetti models web site.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

Hopefully it turns hard north. But it's so far away, so the likelihood of an accurate landfall is low.


Last edited by warren460; 08/31/2017 08:09 AM.

Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: warren460] #139148
08/31/2017 10:10 AM
08/31/2017 10:10 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
OK, not sure what the time on that map is, but the National Hurricane Center current guidance brings Irma far to the SOUTH of the BVI..


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139149
08/31/2017 10:41 AM
08/31/2017 10:41 AM
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 93
Germany, Bergkamen
B
bigbone Offline
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bigbone  Offline
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Joined: May 2013
Posts: 93
Germany, Bergkamen
Other weather models predict a turn to North on Monday/Tuesday next week

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: bigbone] #139150
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
The 11 AM NHC forecast still shows it going south of the BVI, but forecasting past a couple of days can be really unpredictable. Predicted to be a Cat 4, which will be catastrophic, regardless of where it goes.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139151
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,415
VIRGINIA
B
BEERMAN Offline
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BEERMAN  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
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VIRGINIA
Current grib files I look at show a push from the south middle of the week, moving the storm north of the islands. Trying to predict this far out is a crap shoot. If I was chartering next week, I would certainly plan for some unsettled conditions late next week.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: BEERMAN] #139152
08/31/2017 11:33 AM
08/31/2017 11:33 AM
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 911
F
Fletch Offline
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Fletch  Offline
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 911
The latest 5-day cone shows storm moving in a somewhat southwesterly direction however 6 to 8 day "spaghetti computer models" show it making a sharp turn toward that will (hopefully) take it north of the BVI's, USVI's and PR. Still requires a close watch as lots can change between now and then.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Fletch] #139153
08/31/2017 12:19 PM
08/31/2017 12:19 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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Posts: 1,049
Here is the most reliable long term model 168 hours from now or +/- five days from now:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f168.php

I suspect all the boats will be kept at the dock or moved to Hurricane Hole next week unless there is some change. The turn taking the storm to Carolinas or Bermuda is not materializing. In any case next Wednesday and Thursday will be the days of greatest risk with preparations complete before Tuesday across the region.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139154
08/31/2017 01:40 PM
08/31/2017 01:40 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
For you gamblers out there here is a risk or odds chart....

[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139155
08/31/2017 01:57 PM
08/31/2017 01:57 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 24
S
Stevepoz Offline
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Stevepoz  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 24
Good luck to everyone down there!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139156
08/31/2017 02:19 PM
08/31/2017 02:19 PM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
S
Schwendy Offline
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Schwendy  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.



[Linked Image]
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Schwendy] #139157
08/31/2017 04:10 PM
08/31/2017 04:10 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Quote
Schwendy said:
Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.


Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever.

Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow."

We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE!

If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139158
08/31/2017 04:15 PM
08/31/2017 04:15 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Quote
StormJib said:Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November.


Bull. You're talking about effectively half of the year. Stuff happens, for sure, but avoiding the whole Caribbean from June through November is silly.


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139159
08/31/2017 06:09 PM
08/31/2017 06:09 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
Rockford, Michigan
aarpskier Offline
Traveler
aarpskier  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
Rockford, Michigan
Quote
StormJib said:
[quote]Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November.


Bull squared. Over the last 12 years, we have chartered over 6 times in June and October, from the BVI down to Grenada. Perfect weather on every trip. No hurricanes, no tropical storms, fewer people and lower rates. The only bad trip? In December 2003 out of Canouan. Our first (and last) experience with "Christmas Winds." After 4 hours trying to motor north to Bequia and Mustique in 6-8 foot seas and unable to clear the north end of Canouan, we gave up and just spent the week in and around the Tobago Cays. Overcast and really windy every day. We'll take June and October, thank you! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139160
08/31/2017 06:49 PM
08/31/2017 06:49 PM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028
Leverick Bay
NickR Offline
Traveler
NickR  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028
Leverick Bay
Is the purfesser around to give us some hope? Glenn?


Nick Willis
"Mine Host"
Leverick Bay Resort & Marina
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: NickR] #139161
08/31/2017 07:10 PM
08/31/2017 07:10 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,285
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,285
USVI
I sure don't like this collection of computer models.
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017083112_ECENS_large.png?91852102

"unsettled conditions late next week" I would say so for sure.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: LocalSailor] #139162
08/31/2017 08:21 PM
08/31/2017 08:21 PM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,136
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline OP
Traveler
warren460  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,136
Ontario, Canada
Maybe tomorrow will have brighter forecasts. Too bad hope is not a valid plan.


Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139163
09/01/2017 11:17 AM
09/01/2017 11:17 AM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
S
Schwendy Offline
Traveler
Schwendy  Offline
Traveler
S
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
Quote
StormJib said:
Quote
Schwendy said:
Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.


Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever.

Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow."

We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE!

If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.



Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford! Rolled the dice and took my chances and it all worked out. BVI's were deserted! Nice having lower rates and NO crowds but it was almost a little too empty. Plus we missed out on a few places that were closed but still plenty to do. Normally I don't buy travel insurance but that time we did. I think I always would for an expensive charter vacation.



[Linked Image]
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Schwendy] #139164
09/01/2017 12:26 PM
09/01/2017 12:26 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
Traveler
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Read this line:

"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine"

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139165
09/01/2017 12:30 PM
09/01/2017 12:30 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
If the most reliable long term model holds the storm with go by just to the North on Thursday. Then cross the bahamas and head somewhere up the East Coast.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f144.php

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139166
09/01/2017 01:36 PM
09/01/2017 01:36 PM
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,573
Woodstock, GA
RickinAtlanta Offline
Traveler
RickinAtlanta  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,573
Woodstock, GA
Quote
StormJib said:
Read this line:

"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine"


Hey Jib read this line.

Quote
Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: RickinAtlanta] #139167
09/01/2017 02:53 PM
09/01/2017 02:53 PM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,292
Colorado and Sailing the World
Maria_and_Steve Offline
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Maria_and_Steve  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,292
Colorado and Sailing the World
No need to even look at the forecasts until Sunday (or Monday) when the forecasts stabilize. There is currently too much going to for the predictions to be reliable, even for the spaghetti models.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Maria_and_Steve] #139168
09/01/2017 04:07 PM
09/01/2017 04:07 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 6,100
Maryland
Twanger Offline
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Twanger  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 6,100
Maryland
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139169
09/01/2017 04:08 PM
09/01/2017 04:08 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,190
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook Offline
Traveler
tpcook  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,190
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
My hurricane tracking software shows the storm going north of the virgins. Yea!


tpcook
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139170
09/01/2017 04:42 PM
09/01/2017 04:42 PM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,039
Charlotte, NC
N
NCSailor Offline
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NCSailor  Offline
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N
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,039
Charlotte, NC
Quote
Twanger said:
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.


In three October trips I encountered one tropical wave and one hurricane. I don't go in October any longer. Yes, it's cheaper. My vacation time is limited. I can afford not to gamble with hurricane season.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139171
09/01/2017 04:45 PM
09/01/2017 04:45 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
S
StormJib Offline
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StormJib  Offline
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S
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
Quote
Twanger said:
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.



Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: NCSailor] #139172
09/01/2017 06:06 PM
09/01/2017 06:06 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 6,100
Maryland
Twanger Offline
Traveler
Twanger  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 6,100
Maryland
Now tracking a bit North.
If the trend continues, hopefully our beloved Virgin Islands will be spared.
[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139173
09/01/2017 06:21 PM
09/01/2017 06:21 PM
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 989
annap, MD/BVI-Nanny Cay
hallucination Offline
Traveler
hallucination  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 989
annap, MD/BVI-Nanny Cay
Much better...even though my LUCI is in tie downs, all cloths off, and insurance up to date. Agreed, not worth worrying about till Monday. Hopefully I can get back to thinking about replacing the active speaker for the VHF....

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139174
09/01/2017 08:44 PM
09/01/2017 08:44 PM
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 109
Bozeman / Minneapolis
snowdog Offline
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snowdog  Offline
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Joined: May 2014
Posts: 109
Bozeman / Minneapolis
Quote
StormJib said:

Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November.

[/quote]

100% Wrong. I used a professional and knowledgeable travel agent to book my September honeymoon at Caneel Bay 30 years ago. Even back then they offered travel insurance for hurricanes. Tropical storm Gilbert roared through during the middle of the week and we still had a great time.


s/v Snow Dog - Leopard 46
Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: snowdog] #139175
09/01/2017 09:58 PM
09/01/2017 09:58 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 848
Georgia & South Carolina
D
Deepcut Offline
Traveler
Deepcut  Offline
Traveler
D
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 848
Georgia & South Carolina
Snowdog,
We honeymooned at Caneel Bay Sept 10-17, 1989...Great weather with a little more wind on the 17th as we went to STT on Ferry. Rain began to roll in as we went to airport.
Hugo hit on Sept 18th.
I am pretty sure we did not have travel insurance.


Wes
s/v Sea Tiger (2022 Lagoon 46)
www.BareBoatBVI.com

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Deepcut] #139176
09/02/2017 06:17 AM
09/02/2017 06:17 AM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,415
VIRGINIA
B
BEERMAN Offline
Traveler
BEERMAN  Offline
Traveler
B
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,415
VIRGINIA
Good morning, Just checked the 0500hr Irma tracking on NOAA. It's still 4 days out, but local folks know to plan and prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If the course stays as shown it doesn't matter if the eye is a direct hit or not. We were just there for the 15-17 inches of rain that caused a state of emergency....there was no wind with that. To all our friends down there, get to work and stay safe!



[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: BEERMAN] #139177
09/02/2017 07:54 AM
09/02/2017 07:54 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,533
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
Traveler
GeorgeC1  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,533
GA/NC
Reading the written reports on the storm path the conclusion I got was that they have no real idea where this storm is actually going but will be able to tell us more after it goes there! For the moment plan on it moving maybe SW or W or NW and picking up speed.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139178
09/02/2017 09:31 AM
09/02/2017 09:31 AM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 272
Orlando, FL
mmchaplin Offline
Traveler
mmchaplin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 272
Orlando, FL
Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs!


Cheers,

Marcia


[Linked Image]
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: mmchaplin] #139179
09/02/2017 09:35 AM
09/02/2017 09:35 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 79,044
Central Florida!
The guidance as to where she is going within the next 5 days is all over the place, let alone after that..


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: mmchaplin] #139180
09/02/2017 11:16 AM
09/02/2017 11:16 AM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 235
Va Beach
Kmon Offline
Traveler
Kmon  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 235
Va Beach
Quote
mmchaplin said:
Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs!


Based on current projections, if it does affect Virginia, it would probably be on the 11th or 12th.

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