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Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Kmon] #139181
09/02/2017 12:28 PM
09/02/2017 12:28 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
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StormJib Offline
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This far out the only model with any reasonable track record is this one. Showing any BVI impact between 120 and 144 hours out. Which means Thursday at this point.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

BVI Sponsors
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: StormJib] #139182
09/02/2017 01:46 PM
09/02/2017 01:46 PM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,455
An island state of mind
tradewinds Offline
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An island state of mind
This far out, the only way to predict the track is like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3HOK6Z8A-M

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tradewinds] #139183
09/02/2017 03:19 PM
09/02/2017 03:19 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 75,736
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Central Florida!
<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" />


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139184
09/02/2017 04:08 PM
09/02/2017 04:08 PM
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StormJib Offline
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Here is the latest 96 hour run:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Close to the BVI Irma will turn more north and excelerate. Then there is the strong chance of a second new system forming just south of Tortola and threatening the VI region on the 10th.

Last edited by StormJib; 09/02/2017 04:27 PM.
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Kmon] #139185
09/02/2017 08:15 PM
09/02/2017 08:15 PM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2
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cargo13 Offline
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We love to travel in shoulder season--fewer crowds and costs are down but HURRICANES are up. We are leaving Monday for PUnta Cana but we always get travel insurance for this time of year!

Our travel insurance provider GENERALI Travel insurance has been in contact with us re: Irama alerts. their website has alot of good travel info: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Kmon] #139186
09/02/2017 08:18 PM
09/02/2017 08:18 PM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2
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cargo13 Offline
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We love shoulder season travel because fewer crowds and prices are down but HURRICANES.

Our upcoming Punta Cana trip could be impacted by Irma. Our travel insurance GENERALI has alerted us. Their website has updates: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Last edited by cargo13; 09/02/2017 08:19 PM.
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: cargo13] #139187
09/03/2017 07:13 AM
09/03/2017 07:13 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,041
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139188
09/03/2017 08:01 AM
09/03/2017 08:01 AM
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StormJib Offline
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Note the systems popping up after Irma passses.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Normally that is where an October or November storm would suddenly form?

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139189
09/03/2017 08:14 AM
09/03/2017 08:14 AM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,131
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline OP
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Quote
GeorgeC1 said:
Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G


Hi George, when you posted lastest track, could you also post when the guidance was as at? And the source.

Tracks are changing too fast for comfort especially when distances of 50 miles may be very significant.

I note that the U.K. And NHC tracks keep continue shift south towards bvi as recent as the last minute or so.

Thank you.

Warren


Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139190
09/03/2017 08:15 AM
09/03/2017 08:15 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 75,736
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Storm Carib puts the CPA at something like 70 miles away now. Right now, it's a really small cyclone but predicted to get bigger quickly. I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst? Isn't the storm passing to left side the worst?


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139191
09/03/2017 08:20 AM
09/03/2017 08:20 AM
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 5,884
St. Thomas, USVI
Nutmeg Offline
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St. Thomas, USVI
Carol: The right forward quadrant has the strongest winds. That is why we always like these things to go north of us. The farther north the better, but north.


[color:"red"]NUTMEG[/color]
Today is the tomorrow you talked about yesterday.
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139192
09/03/2017 08:20 AM
09/03/2017 08:20 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,152
Rincón PR
casailor53 Offline
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Rincón PR
Quote
Carol_Hill said:
I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst?

The right side of the track is worse (for tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere)

Last edited by casailor53; 09/03/2017 08:22 AM.
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Nutmeg] #139193
09/03/2017 08:26 AM
09/03/2017 08:26 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 75,736
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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OK, thanks. STAY SAFE, everyone!


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139194
09/03/2017 09:17 AM
09/03/2017 09:17 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,121
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
Pam and I will be going to the villa Sept 16-28 to get some work done. Last hurricane at the villa was 40 hours of hell. Blew well over 100 . Was not fun.


tpcook
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tpcook] #139195
09/03/2017 09:57 AM
09/03/2017 09:57 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,041
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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The info I posted was from updates in the last 3 hours. While the storm is predicted to become a CAT 4 it's a tight storm so a miss greater than 50 miles should limit damage. The thing that concerns me is the miss to the N is predicated on IRMA making a turn to the N. we need to start seeing that turn soon!
G

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139196
09/03/2017 11:13 AM
09/03/2017 11:13 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,567
Eric_Hill Offline

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Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:
Quote
A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering
Irma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. This general motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then
west-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western
portion of the ridge.


and

Quote
While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it
should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon
watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor
Irma's progress.


Eric Hill
TTOL Sponsors
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Eric_Hill] #139197
09/03/2017 12:14 PM
09/03/2017 12:14 PM
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
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StormJib Offline
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The GFS and ECMWF are now tightly clustered. This morning's shift comes more into line with the ECMWF which has had the best run to run continuity so far. Anegada further east and north is the most at risk from Irma, Tortola and the USVI may be more threaten by the follow on storm. It is easy to get lost in the spaghetti. The ECMWF or Euro model is the only thing close to credible more than 72 hours out. The ECMWF is updating every three hours.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: StormJib] #139198
09/03/2017 01:52 PM
09/03/2017 01:52 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 16,321
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline
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Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Heard from Walker and Nancy who are on Anegada and prepping " Hidden Treasure"..after dodging serious damage from Harvey at their Houston home. "Island" Jim Kelly has been prepping CRC and is prepared to baby our cat " Farkle" through this...hoping for that turn north SOON!

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139199
09/03/2017 02:07 PM
09/03/2017 02:07 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,121
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
Not looking good right now. Need a North turn soon. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />


tpcook
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Manpot] #139200
09/03/2017 02:31 PM
09/03/2017 02:31 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 75,736
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Central Florida!
Best wishes to Walker and Nancy and to Island Jim and to all on island!


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tpcook] #139201
09/03/2017 04:48 PM
09/03/2017 04:48 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 149
connie Offline
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Hello TP...we will be there also arriving on 9/16. We will be at Mahoe Bay......

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: connie] #139202
09/03/2017 05:01 PM
09/03/2017 05:01 PM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,131
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline OP
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Ontario, Canada
Latest NOA track is west, not wsw. Maybe that will help a bit.


Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: connie] #139203
09/03/2017 07:06 PM
09/03/2017 07:06 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,121
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
call me at the villa 5402442 cell or line 4957425


tpcook
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tpcook] #139204
09/03/2017 08:32 PM
09/03/2017 08:32 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 373
now - or when ?
C
CGB Offline
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now - or when ?
Storms seem later this year - that doesn't help
Let's all hope "luck-o-Tortola" holds against Irma
Best to all

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: CGB] #139205
09/04/2017 07:46 AM
09/04/2017 07:46 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,041
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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I really don't like what I see from the various models this morning. Looks like they have shifted the track slightly south as it passes the BVI and are giving it a greater chance of a US landfall. Still plenty of time for a turn North. Keep the fingers crossed!

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139206
09/04/2017 07:56 AM
09/04/2017 07:56 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,121
South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
tpcook Offline
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South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
latest track shows Virgin Gorda 21 miles from the track center. Not Good


tpcook
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tpcook] #139207
09/04/2017 08:07 AM
09/04/2017 08:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 75,736
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Central Florida!
Tortola 27 miles, St. Maarten 23. NOT good...


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139208
09/04/2017 08:31 AM
09/04/2017 08:31 AM
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 59
Charlotte NC
gracet03 Offline
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Charlotte NC
I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139209
09/04/2017 08:33 AM
09/04/2017 08:33 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,089
Memphis, BVI, CT
R
RatmansWife Offline
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Memphis, BVI, CT
Not only 23 miles away, but when the winds are forecast to be 140 mph. And Ratman says, if we have damage for the first time in 50 years, it will be all my fault for having the view opened up! Not good at all.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: tpcook] #139210
09/04/2017 08:36 AM
09/04/2017 08:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,199
Devon, UK
salica Offline
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Devon, UK
Irma has just been mentioned on BBC weather forecast in UK. This is a virtually unknown happening. Warning being given to anyone intending to visit Caribbean or Florida over coming days. Mentions Barbuda and BVI by name. We are praying for you all.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: gracet03] #139211
09/04/2017 08:37 AM
09/04/2017 08:37 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,041
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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Quote
gracet03 said:
I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?


That would be up to each charter company. Some companies place a portion of their fleet in hurricane storage starting in Aug so they don't have to move a entire fleet. I suspect boats are on the move today and assume all the charters have been recalled to base.
G

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139212
09/04/2017 09:23 AM
09/04/2017 09:23 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 890
Franklin, TN
SusanC Offline
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Franklin, TN
I'm scared for Anegada.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: SusanC] #139213
09/04/2017 09:39 AM
09/04/2017 09:39 AM
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Posts: 1,049
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StormJib Offline
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Here is an old picture. Moving and securing well more than 1,000 boats is very time consuming. Storm 101 is stripping all fabric above deck and chaffing gear like fire hose on all lines. Years ago the fleets would be shut down and stored well in advance. Virgin Traders and others in Nanny Cay usually pull the boats out of the water.


This

[Linked Image]



This link will take you to the assigned seating this season:

http://www.bvimarineassociation.com/downloads/1607PARAQUITA%20BASE%20PLAN%2026%20Jun17.pdf

Last edited by StormJib; 09/04/2017 09:46 AM.
Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: StormJib] #139214
09/04/2017 09:57 AM
09/04/2017 09:57 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,257
Colorado and Sailing the World
Maria_and_Steve Offline
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Colorado and Sailing the World
Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Maria_and_Steve] #139215
09/04/2017 10:09 AM
09/04/2017 10:09 AM
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Posts: 1,049
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StormJib Offline
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Quote
Maria_and_Steve said:
Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!


Charlie Cary the Moorings founder from New Orleans started working on this plan back in 1973. The issue today is the much larger number of boats, the current business plan to stay open during Hurricane season, and the massive size of today's boats. You almost need a football team to take a main off the big cats. The guys on the docks have their work cut out for them taking the boats apart and then hopefully putting them back together again. Only one boat can travel through the cut at a time. The boats will be first queued to enter the bay, then queued again to come alongside and moor at the discretion of the wardens. MASSIVE undertaking for the boats still at the dock.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: StormJib] #139216
09/04/2017 10:31 AM
09/04/2017 10:31 AM
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Christo Offline
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Surprising to still see a few boats from the Moorings fleet mooching around on the Soggy Dollar Webcam (just one currently in shot).

...would the whole fleet not have been called back to the mother-ship by now?

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Christo] #139217
09/04/2017 10:51 AM
09/04/2017 10:51 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,041
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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Should be recalled today. If any are there this afternoon it's a problem.
G

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139218
09/04/2017 11:02 AM
09/04/2017 11:02 AM
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 495
OU Sooner
G
ggffrr11 Offline
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OU Sooner
It seems like you would have to notified some of the bare-boaters
in person at their given location. Even though most companies give you a cell phone/ not everyone has it on. And, not everyone listens to the radio. Even though you caution them, even though they know its coming > there is always a few . . .

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139219
09/04/2017 11:03 AM
09/04/2017 11:03 AM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,455
An island state of mind
tradewinds Offline
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An island state of mind
There's a boat on the dock at Leverick, too.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: GeorgeC1] #139220
09/04/2017 11:05 AM
09/04/2017 11:05 AM
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StormJib Offline
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The actual forecast is sailable until well past nightfall Tuesday and even until midnight. I suspect they have given the charterers until at least noon today and maybe 3pm. All the Moorings boats cannot be secured simultaneously. The last thing they want is all the tourists trapped on their docks hoteling in the boats while the crew is trying to work. As long as the guests are allowed to stay on the boats at the dock no refund is due. If they are forced off the boats by the Moorings they Moorings takes some ownership for the financial problems. The Moorings Marketing company will delay some of the boats as long as they can. Everyone cannot return at the same time. Some will have no place to go. A sudden jog to the North and some may even try to ride the event out in the lee of Jost. A crew would be safe tying up and getting off the boat by 3 on Tuesday.

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