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ATL-STT #76354
11/26/2015 05:28 PM
11/26/2015 05:28 PM
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 569
Knoxville, TN
rundugrun Offline OP
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rundugrun  Offline OP
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Knoxville, TN
We normally charter in June, but this year are considering mid-March. Fares from ATL area around $660-750. When is typically the best time to book to get the lowest fare? With oils prices so low, I was hoping air fares might drop... any thoughts from those who fly from Atlanta? Thanks!



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Re: ATL-STT [Re: rundugrun] #76355
11/26/2015 06:24 PM
11/26/2015 06:24 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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Sadly oil prices are not low for Delta. They hedged most of our fuel this year at 80 to 105 dollars a barrel!
George

Re: ATL-STT [Re: rundugrun] #76356
11/26/2015 10:07 PM
11/26/2015 10:07 PM
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 201
TN
msdj69 Offline
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TN
Quote
rundugrun said:
We normally charter in June, but this year are considering mid-March. Fares from ATL area around $660-750. When is typically the best time to book to get the lowest fare? With oils prices so low, I was hoping air fares might drop... any thoughts from those who fly from Atlanta? Thanks!


We're from Knoxville as well. I've never had much luck finding reasonable airfare to STT from TYS. We've only flown from Knoxville one time. Every other time we've departed from ATL. You can get direct Spirit flights to STT for $350 - $400.

I'd love to be able to fly directly to Beef Island but the price is just too high to justify.

Correction: The direct flight we've taken from ATL is on Delta. We got that flight for about $480. The Spirit flights to STT layover in Lauderdale.

Last edited by msdj69; 11/27/2015 12:11 AM.

Mike
Re: ATL-STT [Re: msdj69] #76357
11/27/2015 12:42 AM
11/27/2015 12:42 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
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RatmansWife Offline
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Memphis, BVI, CT
We're flying Memphis-Atlanta-San Juan-EIS next week for about $320 o/w. I later saw the same flights for $50 less. We've got roughly the same fare (going through Charlotte and maybe Miami) in January, February and March. We like to buy one-way tickets, so we're not locked into a return date.

Adding in taxi, ferry, and taxi to Trellis Bay, we wouldn't save going to STT.

You might find a good last-minute fare, but generally you will do better buying ahead of time. For example, AA had some good fares several weeks ago. Avoid traveling on the weekend, particularly around school holidays. Christmas and New Years are always very expensive.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: RatmansWife] #76358
11/27/2015 08:21 AM
11/27/2015 08:21 AM
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 926
F
Fletch Offline
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Fletch  Offline
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I'll give you the same response I posted to Mike's question on a different thread:

If someone could predict when airlines will offer the best/lowest fares to any destination they could make a fortune selling that information to travelers all over the world. Unfortunately no one can predict when or if airline's will have a sale. All the can do is tell you fares will fluctuate.

Your best bet is to monitor fares for your planned dates of travel to get an idea of the "fare range. then, when you see what looks like a good fare don't hesitate book your flight. That "low fare" may not be there the next day (or even an hour later).

Hint - sign up for airfare email alerts with your airline(s) of choice and on travel sites like kayak.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: Fletch] #76359
11/27/2015 09:02 AM
11/27/2015 09:02 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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In the end it's really simple. They monitor advance bookings. If they are strong then there will be no major discounts. The standard early booking fare from the ATL or CLT area is around 650.00. If the flight is booking up nicely then it's not likely to go below that price. If not then there will be discounting since a airline seat unlike most products is perishable. Once that aircraft pushes back the value of that seat is zero.
The balancing act is how to fill that seat before pushback with revenue but not cannibalize revenue from earlier bookings by training the consumer to wait. Airlines have become much better at in recent years. The key however has been capacity constraint. Some of that has been smarter fleet choices by management and more of it is maxing out our airport capacities. Runway slots and gates are hard to come by and planned infrastructure mprovements are virtually zero. Capacity changes now come from upguaging aircraft to larger sizes not additional airframes. In the STT market the opposite is happening. The airports length and terrain are forcing airlines into smaller airframes with fewer seats as Boeing 757's are retired. None of the replacement aircraft with the same capacity can get in and out of STT with a full load.
George

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76360
11/27/2015 09:23 AM
11/27/2015 09:23 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
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RatmansWife Offline
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George, is STT maxed out on runway slots and gates? It strikes me that all the flights arrive and depart at about the same time, leaving times of day with little activity. Wondering if there might not be an opportunity for more direct flights, from more cities, albeit with fewer seats on each aircraft. If so, what might those cities be - Dallas, Chicago, Boston?

Re: ATL-STT [Re: RatmansWife] #76361
11/27/2015 10:22 AM
11/27/2015 10:22 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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It's maxed out in the afternoon. I am sure from 6 am to noon there are plenty of slots. The issue is timing those flts to connections and having gates and ramp space at the Mainland airport. You will generally find as a example that most vacation flights to the islands never leave the US from the hubs until at least one connecting bank of flights has arrived into the hub to fill the island flight. That normally means a 9am or later departure with the flight arriving at 1pm or so. Afternoons are a madhouse at STT for that reason. There have been some STT flights where they arrive after 6 pm when it slows back down and depart early AM. Now however you have to purchase 7 hotel rooms for the crew plus transportation to and from and pay the airport to park the aircraft overnight. In addition you lose bookings because people don't want to arrive after dark and depart at dawn on vacations. The premium slots at STT are the 1 to 3 arrivals and 2 to 4 departures. It's maxed out on ramp space at those times.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76362
11/27/2015 11:53 AM
11/27/2015 11:53 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
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RatmansWife Offline
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Memphis, BVI, CT
Thanks, George, that makes sense. Could the St. Thomas airport authority increase flights without expanding the airport by eliminating the overnight parking fee? Could Delta pay pilots a hardship allowance to be stationed in the Virgin Islands?

Re: ATL-STT [Re: RatmansWife] #76363
11/28/2015 09:30 AM
11/28/2015 09:30 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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They can sign me up to be based in STT! The reality is it would never work. It's a far to small and seasonal market for a base. They could use ramp space on the other side of the airport and bus passengers over for additional capacity but I am not sure the customs and terminal infrastructure could handle it. Did i mention it's a zoo after about 1 pm!
The other consideration is the Airbus favored by low cost airlines does not have great performance off short runways. My flight home two weeks ago to CLT from STT required a fuel stop in SJU. The bus also has single axle main gear that can limit its ramp access since the footprint is very heavy. The 757 favored by most airlines for STT can get out of a 7000 foot runway and fly 2000 miles with ease. It also has dual axle main trucks. There is no replacement aircraft that can duplicate what it does.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76364
11/28/2015 09:44 AM
11/28/2015 09:44 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
A fuel stop because the plane could not take off with a full fuel load? Sounds like an upcoming problem for airports like STT where a longer runway is very expensive or maybe impossible. Understand the Boeing is looking at a replacement aircraft for 757. Why can't they basically make the same plane again?


tpcook
Re: ATL-STT [Re: tpcook] #76365
11/28/2015 09:58 AM
11/28/2015 09:58 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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The flight was scheduled as a 757. American equipment subbed it to a Airbus 321 with the same seating capacity. They would have had to block off 40 seats to get to clt. Instead they put a light load of fuel on and refueled at SJU.
Airlines asked Boeing to reopen the 757 production line and consider newer engines. Boeing instead has been pushing the 737-900. It suffers from the same performance issues as the Airbus. Both the bus and the 737-900 are considerably cheaper on a per seat basis to operate. Delta and other airlines are overhauling 757's to extend the service life. Low cycle 757's are commanding very strong resale values. A reengined 757 could probably due STT to LAX or even SEA nonstop.

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 11/28/2015 10:01 AM.
Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76366
11/28/2015 10:12 AM
11/28/2015 10:12 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 8,530
Ya never know...
HillsideView Offline
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HillsideView  Offline
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Ya never know...
Not STT, but I was wondering just how many flights that will originate at the pipe dream EIS airport will require a fuel stop in SJU? Would defeat the purpose. Can't imagine a large enough fuel farm at EIS and even if there was, doubt any airline would pay the price.


My foot fits right into my shoe and my shoe will fit right into your...
Re: ATL-STT [Re: HillsideView] #76367
11/28/2015 10:19 AM
11/28/2015 10:19 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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There are smaller aircraft that can get out of 7000 feet and make most east coast US airports. The 737-700 and Airbus A319 come to mind. The new E190/195 would work also. I suspect that is what they hope to get at EIS. The remaining 757's could do it also. The 757 can operate out of Orange County Airport with 5700' of runway and go nonstop 1800 miles with a full load!
What is the status on the extension? I never heard how long they plan to make it.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76368
11/28/2015 10:23 AM
11/28/2015 10:23 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 8,530
Ya never know...
HillsideView Offline
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HillsideView  Offline
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Ya never know...
They've been real quiet on the whole thing since the "done deal" statement. Probably begging for $$ to build it, but I have a feeling their National Health Insurance scheme has thrown a monkey wrench into a lot of projects.


My foot fits right into my shoe and my shoe will fit right into your...
Re: ATL-STT [Re: HillsideView] #76369
11/28/2015 10:46 AM
11/28/2015 10:46 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Found the answer. 6850 feet.
G

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76370
11/28/2015 12:17 PM
11/28/2015 12:17 PM
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,999
Macon, Georgia
GlennA Offline
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GlennA  Offline
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Macon, Georgia
I am not as concerned about the takeoff as the landing. Quick Hill is 11,000' from the end of the runway and from the top of the hill to the runway is almost 6 degrees so no posibility of an instrument approach. It looks like the only approach is over Buck Island and turning 45 deg onto a one mile final. Isn't that a litle tight for a 757?


Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. - Mark Twain
Re: ATL-STT [Re: GlennA] #76371
11/28/2015 06:14 PM
11/28/2015 06:14 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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GA/NC
It would work. Similar approaches are flown all the time into DCA and LGA every day. With the newer lateral nav capabilities GPS brings curved approaches are more and more common. I did see that two of the options the government is looking at involve changing the runway alignment to help with that issue. Sounds like big bucks to do so!
G

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76372
11/28/2015 11:56 PM
11/28/2015 11:56 PM
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,999
Macon, Georgia
GlennA Offline
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Macon, Georgia
There was an alternative plan to align the runway about 12 degrees west. That would have reduced the effect on Trellis and given a good clean 3 degree ILS approach but it would require filling the salt pond and impinge on Long Bay beach which seems to be considered the Belongers' private beach. Total cost would have been about the same as the original piling and girder plan. (About $400 mil.)

Latest plan is a culvert and fill extension of the current runway for about $200 mil. Privatizing the airport with a lease to whoever will pay for the work. (Sort of a Ken Bates Jr deal) <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

Last edited by GlennA; 11/29/2015 12:11 AM.

Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. - Mark Twain
Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76373
11/29/2015 10:12 AM
11/29/2015 10:12 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
Thanks George.
Another question:
How do the airlines buy fuel at each airport they go to. Is there a fixed price at each airport? How does the hedged fuel cost work from airport to airport?
Thanks


tpcook
Re: ATL-STT [Re: tpcook] #76374
11/29/2015 10:54 AM
11/29/2015 10:54 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Offline
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GeorgeC1  Offline
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Airlines negotiate contracts for fuel at most airports. The biggest varible in jet fuel prices are generally taxes. There is no real hedging available for jet fuel. Instead airlines usually place hedges or bets on the price of heating oil. If oil goes up they make a bunch of money. If oil goes down they lose money. If you google Delta and fuel hedges you will find a lot of info on the hedges this year and last.
Perhaps the biggest fuel hedge win ever was Southwest Airlines in the early 2000 era. They made 5 billion dollars on hedging and as a consequence were able to run the airline at a operational loss but still show a profit. This cratered the rest of the unhedged airlines. Every airline management team wants to be the next SW hedge win and as a consequence they have spent way to much time and money at the crap table gambling. One humerous article suggested airline CEO's need to attend Gamblers anonymous.
One interesting side effect of varying taxes and prices is a practice known as tankering. If a aircraft is flying into a airport with high fuel costs they will load extra fuel onboard up to the performance limits to minimize fuel bought at the high cost airport. It costs fuel to carry the extra fuel weight so they have computer programs to figure the break even point.
There is one last method Delta is trying to control its fuel prices or in this case the crack spread which is what is added to the price of oil to crack it into jet fuel. The bought a refinery in the NE. The jury is still out on if it was a good idea.
G

Re: ATL-STT [Re: GeorgeC1] #76375
12/12/2015 12:41 PM
12/12/2015 12:41 PM
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 569
Knoxville, TN
rundugrun Offline OP
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rundugrun  Offline OP
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Posts: 569
Knoxville, TN
Update to the original post: price dropped to $528 for the direct Delta flight from ATL to STT, so I booked. We will be there March 13-21. Woohoo!



[Linked Image]
Re: ATL-STT [Re: rundugrun] #76376
12/14/2015 09:20 AM
12/14/2015 09:20 AM
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,113
Petoskey, MI
CottageGirl Offline
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CottageGirl  Offline
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Posts: 1,113
Petoskey, MI
Wow! $528 seems like a dream. We're looking at Columbus OH to STT first week of April. Delta flights are upwards of $900 right now. Ouch!
Wall Street Journal had an article last week that the best time to buy tickets to the Caribbean is 77 days from departure. Seems to be cutting it kinda close.
We may book now with frequent flier miles and then watch and see if the rates come down. We can always put the miles back in the kitty if we see a good rate.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: CottageGirl] #76377
12/14/2015 09:23 AM
12/14/2015 09:23 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,482
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 82,482
Central Florida!
You would know, I'm sure, regarding Delta, before you did it, but most airlines charge to re-deposit miles, I think. Almost certain that AA does.


Carol Hill
Re: ATL-STT [Re: Carol_Hill] #76378
12/14/2015 09:29 AM
12/14/2015 09:29 AM
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,113
Petoskey, MI
CottageGirl Offline
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CottageGirl  Offline
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Posts: 1,113
Petoskey, MI
Thanks Carol! Luckily at Diamond status with Delta they waive the fees to re-deposit miles.

Re: ATL-STT [Re: CottageGirl] #76379
12/14/2015 10:46 AM
12/14/2015 10:46 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,482
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Central Florida!
Ah, see, I figured you had that figured out. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Smile.gif" alt="" />


Carol Hill

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