The GFS and ECMWF are now tightly clustered. This morning's shift comes more into line with the ECMWF which has had the best run to run continuity so far. Anegada further east and north is the most at risk from Irma, Tortola and the USVI may be more threaten by the follow on storm. It is easy to get lost in the spaghetti. The ECMWF or Euro model is the only thing close to credible more than 72 hours out. The ECMWF is updating every three hours.