Twanger said:
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.
Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.
