Once again, the storm tracks have been pretty inaccurate thus far. Erika was pretty much a non event for my neck of the woods (on Tortola's West End) and it continues to track west north west rather than north ... as all the models predicted.

We had sustained winds of between 40 to 50 mph for about an hour and a half after I shut down my computer last night, then it began to weaken. The wind continues right now which is (I imagine) the tail end of the outer storm bands with intermittent gusts of about 25 to 35 mph.

Kudos to the BVI Electricity Corporation for keeping the power on throughout. We have had no more power outages, only a few dips.

I really don't understand what all the models are based on, but there seems to be a major flaw in the prognostication system. I don't even think Puerto Rico is going to experience much more than what we did, though they may get more rain than us.

I keep waiting for Erika to make that sudden turn to the north the models all show, but it simply hasn't happened yet. At this point, based on the storm's actual track rather than the computer generated models, I am a "little" more concerned for Haiti, (Jamaica and the Cayman Islands which aren't even in the storm warning zone) than I am for Puerto Rico. That's assuming the storm doesn't Peter out before it reaches them, as there seems to be a large wind sheer coming from the east that could put an end to Erika or at least slow her down a lot ... but what do I know.

It seems that unless there is an actual hurricane, the "experts" don't seem to be able to accurately predict storm behaviour or direction very accurately. Since Erika has proven to be a very dangerous and destructive storm in regards to water volumes ... that is of great concern and points to a pretty big flaw in the system.

Fingers crossed that nobody else will have to endure what Dominica did and that this thing won't cause any more loss of life or major damage.

Good luck to all in her path!