Carol, the forecasts have been more than "bad"... I think they've been irresponsible. People take those reports as gospel and it's the ones who haven't been told to be on the alert that really worry me.

I mean, "what if" that darned storm just keeps tracking west? It's already missed two of the "forecasted" turning points, who's to say it won't just keep going on it's slow west north west track? Jamaica is not even on "storm watch" status! What about the southern coast of Haiti? By the way, Dominica wasn't on storm watch status either.

I can't believe that the governor of Florida declared a state of emergency, while folks in Jamaica (up until about three hours ago) were still going about their normal routine, happily thinking they had nothing to worry about. [color:"red"]FINALLY[/color], the meteorological service in Jamaica decided to issue a severe weather alert. Good call fellas. Duuuuh!

We know it's not the wind associated with this storm that is so darned dangerous. Look where the bulk of the storm is located. It's nowhere near the Dominican Republic! It's out over the water ... and where does it appear to be heading?

The forecasters keep concentrating on that itty bitty (almost imperceptible) "eye" or center of rotation as they call it, when (in my humble opinion) they should be focusing on the bit that could potentially cause more major flooding, death and destruction, just as it did in Dominica!

If I lived in Jamaica, I would be making plans to head for high ground in about 24 to 30 hours time, if that thing doesn't make an abrupt northerly turn or get cut off at the knees by wind shear. Jamaica and the southern coast of Haiti could be in really serious trouble. Are they ready for it? Even if wind sheer beats Erika up a bit, there's still a good chance it will pass through just because of it's size.

The next 6 to 12 hours will be the most critical point in my opinion. The leading edge of the storm is just about to run into that wind shear in maybe 2 to 3 hours. If that doesn't do the trick, they had better start organizing themselves.

I find this whole situation truly amazing. Erika is not a storm to take lightly.