Some of the new spaghetti models are showing it going over the southside of DR and Haiti, so the mountains might not be an issue. Which would mean that it probably would not weaken as thought. But then it gets interesting.

Most of the models are showing it going over Cuba in one fashion or another and then heading to Florida gulf coast side. Anywhere from Naples to Tampa. A few of the models have it going along the south side of Cuba but not over Jamaica and then into the gulf. Got to keep an eye on it for the next 24 hours and see what Erika does.