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Tropical storm warning issued for BVI #232545
08/18/2020 11:08 AM
08/18/2020 11:08 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
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Manpot  Online Crying OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Nasty looking red cross heading across the pond right now..worth keeping a close eye on this one..

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/21/2020 11:32 AM.
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Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232553
08/18/2020 12:53 PM
08/18/2020 12:53 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
This is the text this morning from NWS for the PR/VI

Increasing tropical moisture is expected on Friday into the weekend
with the passage of a surface trough followed by a potentially
strong tropical wave for the weekend. Recent model guidance and
information from the National Hurricane Center continued to suggest
that this system has the potential for further development during
the next few days, as it approaches the Leeward Islands. There still
remain some inconsistencies in the model guidance but all suggest
a very moist and unstable weather pattern for the region through
much of the long- term, as we approach the peak of the hurricane
season. As previously mentioned there is still some uncertainties
between model guidance in the final forecast track and timing of
this feature but regardless, the potential for heavy rainfall
across the region over the upcoming weekend is high at this time
based on the present persistence in model guidance.

A slight improvement in the weather conditions is expected by Monday
though Tuesday as the strong Tropical system moves farther away from
the region and trailing moisture lingers across the forecast area.
A drier airmass and another surge of Saharan dust is so far forecast
by the middle of the upcoming workweek.

And some imagery :

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=98L&product=ir

Last edited by LocalSailor; 08/18/2020 12:58 PM.
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232561
08/18/2020 06:31 PM
08/18/2020 06:31 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,461
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
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sxmmartini  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,461
Vermont
Latest spaghetti models...

Attached Files image.jpeg
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: sxmmartini] #232575
08/19/2020 02:13 PM
08/19/2020 02:13 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Up to 90% chance of formation now, PLUS another one coming off Africa!! duh cloud


Carol Hill
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232590
08/19/2020 05:07 PM
08/19/2020 05:07 PM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,148
road town
sleepychef Offline
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sleepychef  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,148
road town
Getting busy now

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232591
08/19/2020 05:48 PM
08/19/2020 05:48 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
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Manpot  Online Crying OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Talk about 2017 deja vu..here we are in Sonoma with fire all around us and storms heading for the islands..

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232592
08/19/2020 05:54 PM
08/19/2020 05:54 PM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
Originally Posted by Manpot
Talk about 2017 deja vu..here we are in Sonoma with fire all around us and storms heading for the islands..

uggh. don't say that....


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232606
08/19/2020 11:45 PM
08/19/2020 11:45 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
R
RatmansWife Offline
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RatmansWife  Offline
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R
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
It's now tropical depression 13, and likely to be a tropical storm when it passes the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232624
08/20/2020 10:53 AM
08/20/2020 10:53 AM
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 520
Bay Area
H
Husker Offline
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Husker  Offline
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H
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 520
Bay Area
Originally Posted by Manpot
Talk about 2017 deja vu..here we are in Sonoma with fire all around us and storms heading for the islands..

Right there with you, Manpot. We are just south of you. Hot and smokey days. Praying for the fog to roll back in.

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232626
08/20/2020 10:55 AM
08/20/2020 10:55 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
This storm will pass north of the BVI at 60MPH and will probably not even provide much rain. We need a good soaker for the cisterns


tpcook
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232633
08/20/2020 11:55 AM
08/20/2020 11:55 AM
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
California
Sunnykm Offline
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Sunnykm  Offline
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 304
California
Mal and Husk, I am in the Central Valley of California and it is so smokey here the shadows in my home this morning are orange. It must be far worse up north.

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232644
08/20/2020 02:39 PM
08/20/2020 02:39 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
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Manpot  Online Crying OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Its better here in Sonoma than most of the Bay area and its pretty bad here! But..to help the local economy ..off to " Bistro Jeanty" in Yountville for lunch..hey you cant take it with you!!

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232675
08/21/2020 09:11 AM
08/21/2020 09:11 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Storm Carib has the following results for closest point of approach of this storm

"Results for Tortola (18.45N, 64.53W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.9N, 64.4W or about 32.3 miles (52.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 21 hours and 13 minutes from now (Saturday, August 22 at 6:24AM AST)."


Carol Hill
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232680
08/21/2020 10:13 AM
08/21/2020 10:13 AM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
TD 13 is now Tropical Storm Laura.


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232685
08/21/2020 11:08 AM
08/21/2020 11:08 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
Traveler
Manpot  Online Crying OP
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
We usually love it when Laura comes to visit..this time not so much! Keep us up to date from CGB Jason if you would be so kind..

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232692
08/21/2020 11:33 AM
08/21/2020 11:33 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Tropical storm warning for Tropical Storm Laura

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands


Carol Hill
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232698
08/21/2020 01:18 PM
08/21/2020 01:18 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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LocalSailor  Offline
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USVI
Losing ground with every update for closest point of approach!

https://stormcarib.com/closest3.htm

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #232706
08/21/2020 02:19 PM
08/21/2020 02:19 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
R
RatmansWife Offline
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RatmansWife  Offline
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Memphis, BVI, CT
Just looked, and the center is now showing closer to St. Croix. That could be ideal - full cistern and no damage.

Re: Tropical storm warning issued for BVI [Re: Manpot] #232762
08/22/2020 10:24 AM
08/22/2020 10:24 AM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
Not much going on here from Laura. Had enough rum after the curfew announcements last night to sleep thru most of it. Some heavy rain bands now and a little wind. Haven't lost power yet so the webcam is up and the sound is on if anyone wants to watch how Cane Garden Bay is doing. Website link then click on Sunset Cam.


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
Re: Tropical storm warning issued for BVI [Re: JasonHelmbrecht] #232771
08/22/2020 12:06 PM
08/22/2020 12:06 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
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Manpot  Online Crying OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Very reassuring..woke up this morning fearing the worst..looks like a minor event. Thanks J..lets hope it stays that way..and that we can get home!

Re: Tropical storm warning issued for BVI [Re: Manpot] #232776
08/22/2020 12:48 PM
08/22/2020 12:48 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
Not much of a wind event here on Crown MT. STT - good solid rain bands so far - very big surf event on the North side of the islands.

wave height --

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot...uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

Last edited by LocalSailor; 08/22/2020 12:48 PM.
Re: Tropical storm warning issued for BVI [Re: LocalSailor] #232777
08/22/2020 12:52 PM
08/22/2020 12:52 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 82,474
Central Florida!
Glad it was a non wind event...


Carol Hill
Re: Tropical storm warning issued for BVI [Re: RatmansWife] #232799
08/22/2020 07:07 PM
08/22/2020 07:07 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
tpcook Offline
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tpcook  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 4,266
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...
Very little rain. BVI needs rain.


tpcook
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Husker] #232915
08/24/2020 05:30 AM
08/24/2020 05:30 AM
Joined: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,419
Bucks County, Pa.
toast Offline
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toast  Offline
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Posts: 1,419
Bucks County, Pa.
Husker,
I am headed your way in September, from your post, I read the fires are quite near you? It is hard to tell from fire maps I have been reading.


Toast.......to Life; White Bay...heaven on earth.
Diane
Re: Red Cross.. [Re: toast] #233007
08/25/2020 10:02 AM
08/25/2020 10:02 AM
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 520
Bay Area
H
Husker Offline
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Husker  Offline
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H
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 520
Bay Area
Originally Posted by toast
Husker,
I am headed your way in September, from your post, I read the fires are quite near you? It is hard to tell from fire maps I have been reading.

@Toast - Yes, there are quite a few fires around us, but no immediate threats. Thankfully now the normal off shore breeze is back, fog rolling in and smoke starting to clear out a bit. Safe travels.

Re: Red Cross.. [Re: Manpot] #233020
08/25/2020 12:37 PM
08/25/2020 12:37 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Online crying OP
Traveler
Manpot  Online Crying OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Not quite so smokey here in Sonoma today about 40 miles north east from Husker


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