Glenn, your analysis is, as usual, spot on. Another wrinkle is alliances and ff miles. Who wants to switch carriers en route and pay double baggage fees - as will happen with this phantom Miami carrier. Folks want all their flights on one ticket. If you fly Southwest to SJU, you need a separate ticket to Tortola, with separate baggage fees. And no guarantee if you miss a connection.

They also want to acquire and use ff miles to their advantage. AA and Delta miles won't get you to the BVI, but United will. Many folks build miles on one alliance, so they want to stick with that carrier. All this matters.

Contrary to Stormjib's assertion that St. Thomas' interest is opposed to that of the BVI, I think STT benefits from those BVI travelers, and would lose a lot if they disappeared. So they (except taxi drivers) have every reason to facilitate that traffic.