When it comes down to it I guess I don't really believe there are such forces at work, but I do spend a lot of time analyzing my actions and decisions, trying to make sure that I learn as much as possible from the incident.

It was, as you said, a rude surprise but still far from disaster. I was fully alert to the situation and there was no delay between the ship coming into view and my seeing it and taking evasive action. Some considerations in no particular order:

1. I would not have left a place of safety in the conditions I found myself in. They developed en route and were neither so serious or proximate to my point of departure to suggest returning.

2. The weather information I consulted (windguru) was not sufficiently specific or up to date to give me an accurate idea of the coming weather. I should see if there isn't something better. WX?

3. I should have asked my wife (whose hearing is better) to confirm the sound. She might also have been able to get a better sense of it's direction. I considered it at the time, but didn't want to alarm her. In hindsight that was certainly a case of misplaced priorities.

4. Maybe I should have proactively turned toward the nearest shallow water, which in this case was Peter Island. In hindsight certainly.